View Full Version : Mafia Wars IV "A Horse's Head in Your Thread"
This thread will become the Mafia Wars game thread but I'm opening it now as a pre game discussion thread.
Any newbies to the game can fire me any questions they may have here.
Gaming hours are included in the rules so Please read the below section carefully to avoid confusion.
Rules
You’re not allowed to use the PM I sent you as proof of your role.
The day period will run for 22 hours (8pm to 10pm) EXCEPT on the first day when it will start 6pm this Sunday evening. Also, I may extend the day period to 11:15pm on special occassions (i.e if activity has been minimal due to a footballing event)
The night period will also last for 22 hours (10pm to 8pm - if need be).
Anyone with night roles, should PM me their decisions as soon as they are decided upon.
If there are more than half the votes for member, voting is suspended and the player has one last chance to prove his innocence. If they are not any unvotes after this, the player is lynched.
Votes can be made at any period during the day period.
To officially vote for a member, please put it in bold; e.g. VOTE NAME.
You are allowed to take away your vote at anytime during the day period. To officially do this please follow the same formula as above; e.g. UNVOTE NAME
If you vote, but then you have a change of mind and unvote, you are still allowed to vote (for anyone).
Billy Minof
18-03-2011, 22:05
The night period will last for 22 hours (10pm to 8pm - if need be).
I think you should stick to this 10pm to 8pm for night period even if you do get all the info otherwise the day and night period gets too confusing...... but leave the thread open for discussion for all members 24/7 just change the thread title to night and day so people no its not voting time. The Mafia do all there conniving behind closed doors anyway and the thread goes dead as soon as the night period rolls in.
What you think?
http://farm3.static.flickr.com/2567/3778911077_fee527487e.jpg
Mafia Wars IV: A Horse's Head in Your Thread
I think you should stick to this 10pm to 8pm for night period even if you do get all the info otherwise the day and night period gets too confusing...... but leave the thread open for discussion for all members 24/7 just change the thread title to night and day so people no its not voting time. The Mafia do all there conniving behind closed doors anyway and the thread goes dead as soon as the night period rolls in.
What you think?
Its easier for me that way so I've no issue with that.
Ultimate777
18-03-2011, 22:14
Alright what are you suppose to do during the day and night period besides voting? What exactly are you suppose to discuss in open?
Alright what are you suppose to do during the day and night period besides voting? What exactly are you suppose to discuss in open?
The night period is basically useless, the mafia cannot post during the night because it would be utterly suspicious, and the townies are not allowed to comment.
During the day, everyone says they are a townie, so basically the game is mostly about bluffing and getting people to commit mistakes. A quick read through the older wars will give you a good idea.
It was a bit slow before because we only had one mafia gang, but with the new format of two mafia gangs, the game is faster and in my opinion better.
Ultimate777
18-03-2011, 22:27
Right, I see how it works now, thanks.
Can a mod or admin amend the title please from "Horse Head" to "Horse's Head" please.
:faceplm: fml
mAQ_nZI6JK4
When do our roles come through Smink?
I'm guessing tomorrow?
mAQ_nZI6JK4
When do our roles come through Smink?
I'm guessing tomorrow?
Hopefully tomorrow afternoon buddy, but tomorrow is a bit hectic, I'm working overtime in the morning and out in the evening at a PES-a-thon at a mates house.
I've got everything ready I just need to send the PM's with the instructions.
chelsea11
19-03-2011, 01:25
What happens in the other two hours? Between 8pm and 10pm :P
Yeah, worded badly :D I kinda meant as of the first day but thats not actually true either :faceplm:
Don't worry chelsea, you'll be dead before then :lol:
chelsea11
19-03-2011, 11:22
Yeah, worded badly :D I kinda meant as of the first day but thats not actually true either :faceplm:
Ha don't worry about it, I'm sure it'll work out grand anyway. As Dale said, I won't have to worry about it for too long. :laugh:
I'm going to start PM-ing your roles today. Please reply to acknowledge receipt and that you understand your roles. Cheers :)
Ultimate777
19-03-2011, 12:01
Cheers sminky. I'm sure I'll have a couple of questions when I get the pm considering I'm new to the game. Should be fun playing mind games with members on here.
Right you should all have your roles now and fuck me, that took longer than I expected :laugh:
Now all I have to do is write up the synopsis.
smudger2008
19-03-2011, 14:27
http://farm3.static.flickr.com/2567/3778911077_fee527487e.jpg
Mafia Wars IV: A Horse's Head in Your Thread
VOTE AMETEUR
:laugh:
Synopsis
In a corner of East London, a town is fractured by infighting and mafia racketeering from the “Parkhurst Reserves”.
Former inmates of Parkhurst prison, the Parkhurst Reserves are so implacably ruthless it is said they got their name from a serving lag -
“Faaank you’re facking lucky starrrs those facking nutters are gone ... because they’d facking slice up you kant for facking naaaathin’. Seriously, you put a facking foot wrong sunshine around them and some serious shit will be reserved just for you. Facking prick”
Days after they setup ‘shop’ in town towns folk were subjected to brutal assaults in a shake up by the mafia to extort every penny from its inhabitants.
Then, without obvious reason, they went to ground. What had happened? Had someone come into town that even they feared?
Participants
Bammers
Hunter
Dale
Papa
Fick
Appswah
Ali
Dundon's
Joel
Billy Minof
Chelsea11
Amateur
Meyyappan
TheBishop
Smudger2008
Phatmann
Football777
Laughin' Man
The Game begins 6pm Sunday 20th March.
smudger2008
19-03-2011, 15:14
18 players, is that a record?
18 players, is that a record?
I think so.
smudger2008
19-03-2011, 15:21
your touting in unrelated threads paid off :laugh:
:laugh: I guess so .... its going to be a massive undertaking, I'd best put Killzone3 to on the shelf for the duration of this game.
smudger2008
19-03-2011, 15:27
:laugh: I guess so .... its going to be a massive undertaking, I'd best put Killzone3 to on the shelf for the duration of this game.
ha, you must be gutted about that :laugh:
ha, you must be gutted about that :laugh:
:D Its not so bad, I could probably do with taking a break from it anyhow
Stop spamming you Mafia twats!
Billy Minof
20-03-2011, 16:23
What happens in the other two hours? Between 8pm and 10pm :P
It will give Smink time to write up the reviews of the nights events....ie, the killings.
Stop spamming you Mafia twats!
:ohmy:
smudger2008
20-03-2011, 16:56
The day period will run for 22 hours (8pm to 10pm) EXCEPT on the first day when it will start 6pm this Sunday evening. Also, I may extend the day period to 11:15pm on special occassions (i.e if activity has been minimal due to a footballing event)
Does this mean the fisrt day finishes tomorrow at 10PM?
Also I noticed somebody suggested that tactical discussions should be allowed during the nighttime period, has this been agreed or is it still not allowed?
Does this mean the fisrt day finishes tomorrow at 10PM?
Also I noticed somebody suggested that tactical discussions should be allowed during the nighttime period, has this been agreed or is it still not allowed?
1. Yep
2. Most definitely no, goes against the basic rules of the game.
Game starts in 10 minutes ... Admin/Mod can you change the Thread title from (Pre-Game discussion thread) to (Daytime Session) please.
Please make sure you are familar with the rules before posting and understand your roles.
Day 1
Daytime session has now started ...
Why hello brothers, lovely day wouldn't you say?
Can you mark the thread with the Important Sticky tag please Hunter. Cheers buddy.
That was a very quick comment Hunter :ninja:
Ultimate777
20-03-2011, 19:21
Seems like Hunter is trying his best to hide something.
Day 1
Daytime session has now started ...
Day 1.
Old habits die hard eh Joel? Don't forget you are actually playing this time round :joel:
Pinocchio eh Hunter? One of the most famous liars in literature? And Italian to boot... :hmm:
Ha Joel you numpty. I see we already have our village idiot!
Taking my crown Joel :joel:
Edit: Papa :laugh:
That was a very quick comment Hunter :ninja:
You betcha. Just count yourself lucky my post wasn't solely occupied with the comment "FIRST!" :lol:
Dundon's
20-03-2011, 19:35
So it begins...
Pinocchio eh Hunter? One of the most famous liars in literature? And Italian to boot... :hmm:
:laugh:
Quite brilliant timing really.
Contrary to belief, Pinocchio isn't simply an innocent boy who happens to lie. Pinocchio was originally also a killer as far as I know, I believe from what I've heard in an original tale he killed Jiminy Cricket very early on in the story. Pinocchio was originally a lot more cynical, but obviously to appeal to a wider audience, and to generally make a more touching story, Pinocchio's character - as well as Jiminy Cricket's was altered a little of course.
This would possibly be a little relevant if this Mafia Wars was set in Italy, however we're currently living in the pits of inner-city London I believe.
Get with the programme. ;)
I just like to say what day it is. It's reassuring.
I just like to say what day it is. It's reassuring.
Ok dear
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_D3p20YNQVFI/TBIsTzjJBLI/AAAAAAAAAZc/c0oiQo5_MoQ/s1600/michael-winner.jpg
Seems like Hunter is trying his best to hide something.
Pinocchio eh Hunter? One of the most famous liars in literature? And Italian to boot... :hmm:
And so the accusations begin :laugh:, oh how I've missed this! The unity, the oneness, the feeling of being part of a community albeit one likely to stab you in the back at a moments notice!
Phatmann
20-03-2011, 20:19
Good day to all. Hope you are all well.
Ali_BWFC
20-03-2011, 21:10
Pinocchio eh Hunter? One of the most famous liars in literature? And Italian to boot... :hmm:
Well, that would be relevant, but it's cockney gangsters this time.
:laugh:
Quite brilliant timing really.
Contrary to belief, Pinocchio isn't simply an innocent boy who happens to lie. Pinocchio was originally also a killer as far as I know, I believe from what I've heard in an original tale he killed Jiminy Cricket very early on in the story. Pinocchio was originally a lot more cynical, but obviously to appeal to a wider audience, and to generally make a more touching story, Pinocchio's character - as well as Jiminy Cricket's was altered a little of course.
That's all I need to hear! Know who I'll be voting for in this round...
This would possibly be a little relevant if this Mafia Wars was set in Italy, however we're currently living in the pits of inner-city London I believe.
Get with the programme. ;)
:faceplm: Forgot about that. Why didn't Amade... I mean Amy, remind me!?
:faceplm: Forgot about that. Why didn't Amade... I mean Amy, remind me!?
:laugh:
Well played.
:faceplm: Forgot about that. Why didn't Amade... I mean Amy, remind me!?
Hate to be the bearer of bad new, but I saw her with another guy last night.
Hate to be the bearer of bad new, but I saw her with another guy last night.
http://thepiratesdilemma.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/02/clay-davis.jpg
...just got real...
I admit, yes it was me. Papa just couldn't satisfy her anymore, she said your manhood was too small to even hit the outer vulva.
She's annoying though so I used her for a rimjob and then sent her on her way.
Bammers05
20-03-2011, 22:01
I'd just like to say I think it's important that we get everyone commenting as much as possible during Day 1. In past Mafia Wars, the mafia have killed those who haven't said anything, on Night 1, thereby giving us no leads for the next day. However if everyone talks a fair bit during the first day, they can't use that tactic.
Dundon's
20-03-2011, 22:04
You have to love the peace and respect shown to each other on the opening day, just wait until someone gets knocked off though and the accusations we'll be going 90. :D
The good news is I'm town and promise to make more of an effort at the early stages this time around, we so nearly won the last time. It's funny though knowing you can be killed at any time during your sleep by mafia but maybe that's part of the excitement and one of the reasons it's more fun playing as a townie.
I admit, yes it was me. Papa just couldn't satisfy her anymore, she said your manhood was too small to even hit the outer vulva.
She's annoying though so I used her for a rimjob and then sent her on her way.
I believe you got your story wrong, Dale.
I did see you too that night and as usual was absolutely battered. But you didn't go home with Amy.
You went home with:
http://img145.imageshack.us/img145/5975/crazyface.jpg
Bammers05
20-03-2011, 22:10
Were they riding a bike that night, by any chance?
Because if they were, then they're almost certainly mafia.
[/Thinking like Amateur]
However if everyone talks a fair bit during the first day, they can't do use that tactic.
Ha! didn't work for me in the first wars, got lynched first night despite being a frequent poster :no:
[/Thinking like Amateur]
Dangerous game Bammers old son, you'll be making 1000 word posts soon...
Bammers05
20-03-2011, 22:17
Ha! didn't work for me in the first wars, got lynched first night despite being a frequent poster :no:
Sorry about that :D
Tbh the logic still stands though. If someone gets killed, who's spoken often, it gives us more clues, than if that person hasn't spoken at all.
Were they riding a bike that night, by any chance?
Because if they were, then they're almost certainly mafia.
[/Thinking like Amateur]
They kept talking about each other's left analogue stick.
Ultimate777
20-03-2011, 22:37
Sorry about that :D
Tbh the logic still stands though. If someone gets killed, who's spoken often, it gives us more clues, than if that person hasn't spoken at all.
How do we know that we can trust you? How do we know you're not going to use those clues to help keep yourself concealed?
Bammers05
20-03-2011, 22:54
How do we know that we can trust you? How do we know you're not going to use those clues to help keep yourself concealed?
Well, of course, you don't know that you can trust me - indeed, it's foolish to trust anyone in this game. I just hope that people can see the logic behind what I'm saying.
smudger2008
20-03-2011, 22:56
I think it's really dodgey that Hunter has changed his Avatar to a liar today! I know it's already been mentioned by Papa, but I think it needs to be taken seriously. Hunter likes to give clues when he's mafia, remember the last one where he dropped the 'riding my bike' hint.
EDIT: he's already top of my list and everyone else is joint second!
Ultimate777
20-03-2011, 23:01
Well, of course, you don't know that you can trust me - indeed, it's foolish to trust anyone in this game. I just hope that people can see the logic behind what I'm saying.
Yeah I guess the ones who are not participating are waiting for night time to arrive to talk amongst themselves.
I think Hunter is suspicious,, and so are those ones who are on here but not talking.
But I'm watching you as I don't like your tone.
EDIT: he's already top of my list and everyone else is joint second!
:laugh: You're really getting into the spirit of this, I can tell!
EDIT: he's already top of my list and everyone else is joint second!
It's alright everyone. Apart from Hunter, we're all joint last on his list. ;)
EDIT: By the way, anyone ever notice 'Hunter' sounds rather like a Mafia nickname? :ninja:
Bammers05
20-03-2011, 23:06
But I'm watching you as I don't like your tone.
You never like my tone :(
smudger2008
20-03-2011, 23:07
It's alright everyone. Apart from Hunter, we're all joint last on his list. ;)
EDIT: By the way, anyone ever notice 'Hunter' sounds rather like a Mafia nickname? :ninja:
hehehe I don't think you have to worry anyway, based on the previous game no fucker listens to me anyway, I got lynched first on the say so of Amateur if you remember. :laugh:
chelsea11
20-03-2011, 23:32
Hey guys, token first to be killed guy is here!
It seems to be the same old, same old, so far. Well bar Papa with his 'mind' games, stating he is mafia.
Joel :lol:. I can't say anything either because of the picture Cookie made, damn you Cookie :crymore:
I'll be a lot more involved in this one as well because the main rush of my work is over, which pretty much came around the whole time of the last game :laugh:
But I shall be around more in this game, to help my fellow townie cockney geezers.
Edit: Chelsea, that's a good point man, why hasn't he done to same in this game? I thought it was a tradition of his :hmm:
It's alright everyone. Apart from Hunter, we're all joint last on his list. ;)
EDIT: By the way, anyone ever notice 'Hunter' sounds rather like a Mafia nickname? :ninja:
:laugh:
I've a feeling this game will be utterly epic.
If I ever was to drop a hint, I'd do it with a bit more subtlety. :lol:
As already mentioned, Pinocchio is probably the most famous liar in the world, so choosing my boy Pinocchio as an avatar isn't exactly lying low and under the radar. :lol: Everyone knows I'm a Disney homo, and thus far it's my favourite Disney classic - I've still quite a few to go through. Sheeeeeeiiiiiiiiit, just check the DVD thread and track back a few pages to see my Disney extravaganza, or better yet my Pinocchio mini-review in the Last Movie Watched thread. Don't play me like that bitches, I deserve to enjoy this Mafia War. :lol:
On another note, who's yet to post in here?
We've all seen the movies. We all know the black guy gets killed first. May as well put the big red bulleye on me now.
Motherfuckers.
smudger2008
20-03-2011, 23:47
:laugh:
I've a feeling this game will be utterly epic.
If I ever was to drop a hint, I'd do it with a bit more subtlety. :lol:
As already mentioned, Pinocchio is probably the most famous liar in the world, so choosing my boy Pinocchio as an avatar isn't exactly lying low and under the radar. :lol: Everyone knows I'm a Disney homo, and thus far it's my favourite Disney classic - I've still quite a few to go through. Sheeeeeeiiiiiiiiit, just check the DVD thread and track back a few pages to see my Disney extravaganza, or better yet my Pinocchio mini-review in the Last Movie Watched thread. Don't play me like that bitches, I deserve to enjoy this Mafia War. :lol:
On another note, who's yet to post in here?
The more you type the bigger your nose is getting!
We've all seen the movies. We all know the black guy gets killed first. May as well put the big red bulleye on me now.
Motherfuckers.
This isn't a horror movie. :lol:
Billy Minof
20-03-2011, 23:49
Lets have a nice clean game and take out each and every mafia member.
chelsea11
20-03-2011, 23:51
Who was it in the last one that was dropping hints all over the place? Hunter? :hmm:
Where is Amateur by the way? Still typing out his first post for the last few hours? :laugh:
Who was it in the last one that was dropping hints all over the place? Hunter? :hmm:
Hints all over the place? I dropped one. :laugh:
And very subtly.
http://www.lowbird.com/data/images/2008/01/bitch-please.jpg
Anyway, I don't need to defend myself further. Feel free to lynch me if you wish.
Where is Amateur by the way? Still typing out his first post for the last few hours? :laugh:
:laugh:
Lets have a nice clean game and take out each and every mafia member.
Only if they pay. Bastards killed me off last time I played, not treating them to a feed as well.
Where is Amateur by the way? Still typing out his first post for the last few hours? :laugh:
:laugh: Good show!
chelsea11
20-03-2011, 23:59
Hints all over the place? I dropped one. :laugh:
Anyway, I don't need to defend myself further. Feel free to lynch me if you wish.
Ah I wasn't actually accusing you of anything, just saying. I thought you said you dropped a few around different threads..? I'm imagining things now :unsure: We should watch out for that sort of thing this time around anyway.
Right, I've got to get some sleep, got to be up early for work, so I'll speak to you geeza's tomorrow...
Phatmann
21-03-2011, 00:09
I see a few accusations being thrown Hunters way. Could the mafia be pushing for a first day lynching? http://highprofileaudio.com/smile7838.gif
Bammers05
21-03-2011, 00:11
Right, I've got to get some sleep, got to be up early for mafia work, so I'll speak to you geeza's tomorrow...
:ohmy:
Bammers05
21-03-2011, 00:13
Also, there was no need for an apostrophe in 'geezas'
:ohmy:
Dundon's
21-03-2011, 01:50
I see a few accusations being thrown Hunters way. Could the mafia be pushing for a first day lynching? http://highprofileaudio.com/smile7838.gif
Hunter is way too slick to throw a hint as obvious as that, I think it's more the fact that he is probably town that he has the nerve to do so in the first place, him knowing full well he has nothing to hide.
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_x9Eq7N0pQpc/TIczF820zAI/AAAAAAAAFk4/48U5Igsopq8/s1600/SadKeanuMcNaughton.jpg
Mafia Wars IV: trust no one.
-------------------------------------------------------
Day One: trust no one.
Everyone commenting on the first day is a fair suggestion on paper, but in reality, everyone will bluff on the first day and some people will not even comment; what can we do about it?
We can lynch someone on the first day, that someone will probably be a townie, and then you need to consider the mafia kills; a first day lynch is not worth the risk because the kill will not provide any information that can be associated with mafia activity, since there have been no mafia events.
We must consider that in the last war, the first person we were going to lynch was Dundon's, and Dundon's was a townie, had we lynched Dundon's on that second day, we would have lost the game earlier than we did.
We lost the game in the third day, when we lynched Smudger, had we not lynched Smudger on the third day, I believe we would have won MWIII.
The important thing concerning MWIII is not that we lynched Smudger on the third day because he was suspicious, the important thing is that we lynched Smudger when Smudger's death would not provide us with any information that could be associated with mafia events.
And by information, I mean information that can be useful for the town as opposed to useful for the mafia gangs; for instance, Smudger believed that I was mafia, therefore his death would incriminate a townie, which is detrimental for the town and beneficial for the mafia gangs.
When all was said and done, the people who risked themselves turned out to be townies, and the people who talked a lot without risking themselves for the sake of something bigger than them turned out to be vampires; at the end of the day, actions speak louder than words.... which is something that was clearly reflected on the votes of the second day, where Papa and Bammers voted in favor of lynching a townie, when both Papa and Bammers were mafia.
Actions speak louder than words, therefore my vote will be based on actions, not on words; therefore, I will not be voting on the first day.
My vote will be used against someone who can provide the town with information that is beneficial for the town, information that is beneficial for the town must be information that can be associated with mafia events.
At the end of the day, the truth is, like it or not, that mafia events are the only thing that can unite us as a community; anything else, is just words, words that will more than likely be used against us, they defeat us with judgement because we do not know how to judge for our own benefit.
Pinocchio eh Hunter? One of the most famous liars in literature? And Italian to boot... :hmm:
That's a very good point, even more so considering how Hunter uses such details, in the last war he posted the picture of a bycicle after the whole mafia bycicle killing tactic; and now, Pinocchio..... :hmm:
But we're in London, so, just a meaningless coincidence I'm sure; but who am I kidding, I don't believe in nationalities when it comes to scumbags, scumbags are scumbags wherever they are, and Pinocchio is a scumbag.
Though having said that, the avatar is too risky, Hunter is more sneaky than that, so the chances are that Hunter is a townie, which explains why he is taking more risks by having Pinocchio as his avatar -- or -- this is a massive bluff, and Hunter is taking his game to a new level of riskiness.
My opinion is that Hunter is a townie.
"a point in hand is bettter than three in bush"
That has to be the best sentence ever.
It'll be interesting to see everyone appoach as the closing hours get closer tomorrow. I'm hoping to see more activity in here, because I don't want to be thinking this and that based on more or less nothing. Would be lame.
Bammers05
21-03-2011, 02:07
Everyone commenting on the first day is a fair suggestion on paper, but in reality, everyone will bluff on the first day and some people will not even comment; what can we do about it?
True, but at least, if people talk, the mafia actually have to think about their kill, rather than automatically killing a quiet person.
We can lynch someone on the first day, that someone will probably be a townie, and then you need to consider the mafia kills; a first day lynch is not worth the risk because the kill will not provide any information that can be associated with mafia activity, since there have been no mafia events.
Agreed.
When all was said and done, the people who risked themselves turned out to be townies, and the people who talked a lot without risking themselves for the sake of something bigger than them turned out to be vampires; at the end of the day, actions speak louder than words.... which is something that was clearly reflected on the votes of the second day, where Papa and Bammers voted in favor of lynching a townie, when both Papa and Bammers were mafia.
Actually, I was, technically still a townie at that stage. And I was most definitely not a vampire. And there was, technically, logic behind that lynching anyway.
True, but at least, if people talk, the mafia actually have to think about their kill, rather than automatically killing a quiet person.
Actually, I was, technically still a townie at that stage. And I was most definitely not a vampire. And there was, technically, logic behind that lynching anyway.
I agree that communication is better than silence, however, at this stage of the game it's more or less futile, though at the same time, this type of communication will be critical after today.
As for MWIII, let's be honest, you had to play for the mafia sooner or later since you were a treacherous townie, therefore you were mafia from the very start, you just didn't knew for which team you were going to play.
As for the lynch in question, I agree, that there was logic behind the mentioned lynch, it's just a shame that we did not realized that the lynch was not worth the risk due to practical reasons.
Anyways, I'm hoping to see more activity tomorrow.
smudger2008
21-03-2011, 09:31
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_x9Eq7N0pQpc/TIczF820zAI/AAAAAAAAFk4/48U5Igsopq8/s1600/SadKeanuMcNaughton.jpg
Mafia Wars IV: trust no one.
-------------------------------------------------------
Day One: trust no one.
Everyone commenting on the first day is a fair suggestion on paper, but in reality, everyone will bluff on the first day and some people will not even comment; what can we do about it?
We can lynch someone on the first day, that someone will probably be a townie, and then you need to consider the mafia kills; a first day lynch is not worth the risk because the kill will not provide any information that can be associated with mafia activity, since there have been no mafia events.
We must consider that in the last war, the first person we were going to lynch was Dundon's, and Dundon's was a townie, had we lynched Dundon's on that second day, we would have lost the game earlier than we did.
We lost the game in the third day, when we lynched Smudger, had we not lynched Smudger on the third day, I believe we would have won MWIII.
The important thing concerning MWIII is not that we lynched Smudger on the third day because he was suspicious, the important thing is that we lynched Smudger when Smudger's death would not provide us with any information that could be associated with mafia events.
And by information, I mean information that can be useful for the town as opposed to useful for the mafia gangs; for instance, Smudger believed that I was mafia, therefore his death would incriminate a townie, which is detrimental for the town and beneficial for the mafia gangs.
When all was said and done, the people who risked themselves turned out to be townies, and the people who talked a lot without risking themselves for the sake of something bigger than them turned out to be vampires; at the end of the day, actions speak louder than words.... which is something that was clearly reflected on the votes of the second day, where Papa and Bammers voted in favor of lynching a townie, when both Papa and Bammers were mafia.
Actions speak louder than words, therefore my vote will be based on actions, not on words; therefore, I will not be voting on the first day.
My vote will be used against someone who can provide the town with information that is beneficial for the town, information that is beneficial for the town must be information that can be associated with mafia events.
At the end of the day, the truth is, like it or not, that mafia events are the only thing that can unite us as a community; anything else, is just words, words that will more than likely be used against us, they defeat us with judgement because we do not know how to judge for our own benefit.
That's a very good point, even more so considering how Hunter uses such details, in the last war he posted the picture of a bycicle after the whole mafia bycicle killing tactic; and now, Pinocchio..... :hmm:
But we're in London, so, just a meaningless coincidence I'm sure; but who am I kidding, I don't believe in nationalities when it comes to scumbags, scumbags are scumbags wherever they are, and Pinocchio is a scumbag.
Though having said that, the avatar is too risky, Hunter is more sneaky than that, so the chances are that Hunter is a townie, which explains why he is taking more risks by having Pinocchio as his avatar -- or -- this is a massive bluff, and Hunter is taking his game to a new level of riskiness.
My opinion is that Hunter is a townie.
Pure man-crush on Keanu Reeves, what's that all about?
Here we go again, 'Vampires', what are you on?
You talk about the 'lynching of Smudger' like it was an event you had no involvement in. Lets not forget that you instigated that event and then didnt even vote. You gave your excuses but they were BS, you pushed for the lynching and if you decided the kill wasn't worth it you should have informed everyone else, so whatever you say, YOU got that first lynching wrong and others just followed you.
I know this got the spotlight directed on me last time, but I have to say, if we don't lynch someone the odds are more in the mafia's favour. Anyway I'm not going to push that one as I don't want my words to be twisted again by Amateur.
Ali_BWFC
21-03-2011, 09:51
Who was it in the last one that was dropping hints all over the place? Hunter? :hmm:
Where is Amateur by the way? Still typing out his first post for the last few hours? :laugh:
Haha! Looks like you were correct.
A few things we need to consider:
Could there be 2 or more mafia families again?
How many mafia members are there in total? I'm thinking 5... maybe even 6.
Could we see the return of the serial killer?
These points are important when we're decide whether or not we need a lynch on the 1st day. If there are 2 mafia families, and one serial killer... that could mean up to 3 lynches at night.... which will massively dwindle our numbers.
Here's some tactics I think we should employ:
Be open minded. Sometimes, when you have an idea that someone is mafia, it's hard to get that out of your head.
On that point, if you do suspect someone..... say it. It's good to have things in the open.
No bandwagon-jumping. It hasn't worked in the past. If someone is calling to lynch a certain person, and you really don't believe he's mafia.... say it.... and don't vote for that person.
Look for subtle allegiances.... not obvious ones. The mafia would never make it obvious who they're connected to.
As for Hunter having a Pinocchio avatar.... it could just be down to his obsession for Disney movies :)
smudger2008
21-03-2011, 10:27
Look for subtle allegiances.... not obvious ones. The mafia would never make it obvious who they're connected to.
As for Hunter having a Pinocchio avatar.... it could just be down to his obsession for Disney movies :)
Is that a subtle allegiance between you and hunter :laugh:
A few things we need to consider:
Could there be 2 or more mafia families again?
How many mafia members are there in total? I'm thinking 5... maybe even 6.
Could we see the return of the serial killer?
These points are important when we're decide whether or not we need a lynch on the 1st day. If there are 2 mafia families, and one serial killer... that could mean up to 3 lynches at night.... which will massively dwindle our numbers.
Yeah.
The first night will reveal to us just what characters may be in the game I imagine. So our tactics will probably have to be based off of that. With 18 of us involved, I can't see it being a case of simply 1 mafia and no serial killer - unless Sminky is throwing everyone with the previous game and taking it back to basics to mind fuck is all into hysteria and paranoia. I can't see it though. There has to be other roles in this War I think, possibly a cop, a serial killer, maybe 1 mafia organisation, a doctor, what else could there be?
smudger2008
21-03-2011, 10:44
Yeah.
The first night will reveal to us just what characters may be in the game I imagine. So our tactics will probably have to be based off of that. With 18 of us involved, I can't see it being a case of simply 1 mafia and no serial killer - unless Sminky is throwing everyone with the previous game and taking it back to basics to mind fuck is all into hysteria and paranoia. I can't see it though. There has to be other roles in this War I think, possibly a cop, a serial killer, maybe 1 mafia organisation, a doctor, what else could there be?
I think we have to assume there are at least 2 mafia families, haven't we?
Pure man-crush on Keanu Reeves, what's that all about?
Here we go again, 'Vampires', what are you on?
You talk about the 'lynching of Smudger' like it was an event you had no involvement in. Lets not forget that you instigated that event and then didnt even vote. You gave your excuses but they were BS, you pushed for the lynching and if you decided the kill wasn't worth it you should have informed everyone else, so whatever you say, YOU got that first lynching wrong and others just followed you.
I know this got the spotlight directed on me last time, but I have to say, if we don't lynch someone the odds are more in the mafia's favour. Anyway I'm not going to push that one as I don't want my words to be twisted again by Amateur.
I did not voted and I did not have enough time to inform anyone since I barely had any time to inform myself, and if you had any common sense, you would know that I informed everyone as soon as I could; you see, sometimes the real life duties require most of your time.
I did not voted on that day, it was not my fault that other people did voted; was it my fault that no fellow townie argued the case? was it my fault that no fellow townie informed me about why it was not worth the risk? No, I realized that by myself, and by the time I had realized that I would not be voting, the decision had already been made by the people who actually voted.
The lack of communication is a collective fault, therefore I am also responsible, but it is not down to an individual.... you blaming an individual for a collective fault is very suspicious to my eyes. I was not sorry to see you go in MWIII, and I will not be sorry to see you go this time if you continue behaving the same way, you are a fucking asshole who did a huge disservice to the town in MWIII, and you are doing it again in MWIV.
In fact, in MWIII, you wanted to lynch two townies.... you actually voted in favor of lynching two townies; on the other hand, I never voted in favor of lynching a townie, every single one of my votes was aimed against a mafia scumbag; like I said, actions speak louder than words.
You should think twice before judging someone who, unlike you, did not helped the mafia with their votes. My suggestion is that you shut the fuck up before, yet again, you do another great disservice to the town, with your ridiculous bullshit.
Do you still not realize that it is wrong to put yourself before the community?
Here we go again, 'Vampires', what are you on?
What is a vampire? Are you really stupid enough to not understand a simple metaphorical reference for people who only care about their own interests.
You were a vampire in MWIII because you placed your own interests above the well being of the community, with your irrational suspicions and your naive voting decisions you helped the mafia gangs.
Vampires can be townies, the one thing about vampires is that they are always detrimental to the community; in other words, they are blood suckers, they suck the life out of organizations, for their own benefit, at the expense of everybody whom is genuinely involved and interested in collective efforts.
Therefore, if you are genuinely interested in the well being of the community, it is of paramount importance to identify the vampires amongst the masses, so that you can ignore the vampires that are supposed to be townies, therefore rendering such vampires as something irrelevant that cannot possibly affect the outcome of an event that is supposed to be beneficial for the community.
You want to know why in MWIII you voted against townies twice in just three days?
Because you were a vampire who just happened to be a townie, and as such, you voted against people whose deaths could not provide useful information for the community, because you just wanted a lynch for the sake of it, to satisfy your own thirst, you did not give a fuck about whether or not the lynch would be remotely close to beneficial for the community, you were a fucking vampire dressed as a townie.
The mistake that I made when judging you in MWIII, was that knowing that you were a vampire I made you influential to my decisions by giving you my attention, when the fact was that your death could not be associated with mafia events because your main suspicions were both townies, therefore your death could not provide beneficial information for the community; long story short, your death sentence was not worth the risk at such a critical stage, it was certainly not worth my vote.
So "vampires", it really is just a simple metaphorical reference that I choose to use to describe the mentioned selfish idiots. And you are attacking me for such a simple thing, once again, putting yourself above the community.
I think we have to assume there are at least 2 mafia families, haven't we?
That's a fair point, in MWIII we were 12 characters and we had two mafia gangs; therefore it doesn't seem logical that now that we have 18 characters we only have one mafia family.
But that's all the more reason not to lynch someone on the first day. We need to have a good idea of the situation before using our voting rights.
I think we have to assume there are at least 2 mafia families, haven't we?
Very possibly, that's why I said 'maybe' 1 mafia organisation.
Whether there's 1 mafia family and a serial killer, or 2 mafia families and no serial killer, or even 2 families and also a serial killer. Sheeeiiiiit there could even be no serial killer and 3 damn mafia families since we have 18 players.
As I say, the big reveal will be the first night like it was last War. We'll then see if there's more than 1 mafia organisation.
Very possibly, that's why I said 'maybe' 1 mafia organisation.
Whether there's 1 mafia family and a serial killer, or 2 mafia families and no serial killer, or even 2 families and also a serial killer. Sheeeiiiiit there could even be no serial killer and 3 damn mafia families since we have 18 players.
As I say, the big reveal will be the first night like it was last War. We'll then see if there's more than 1 mafia organisation.
I do notice that you're using a lot of the mannerisms of Clay Davis of the Wire recently Hunter... You know, that corrupt politician with links to organised crime? :hmm:
smudger2008
21-03-2011, 11:57
I did not voted and I did not have enough time to inform anyone since I barely had any time to inform myself, and if you had any common sense, you would know that I informed everyone as soon as I could; you see, sometimes the real life duties require most of your time.
I did not voted on that day, it was not my fault that other people did voted; was it my fault that no fellow townie argued the case? was it my fault that no fellow townie informed me about why it was not worth the risk? No, I realized that by myself, and by the time I had realized that I would not be voting, the decision had already been made by the people who actually voted.
The lack of communication is a collective fault, therefore I am also responsible, but it is not down to an individual.... you blaming an individual for a collective fault is very suspicious to my eyes. I was not sorry to see you go in MWIII, and I will not be sorry to see you go this time if you continue behaving the same way, you are a fucking asshole who did a huge disservice to the town in MWIII, and you are doing it again in MWIV.
In fact, in MWIII, you wanted to lynch two townies.... you actually voted in favor of lynching two townies; on the other hand, I never voted in favor of lynching a townie, every single one of my votes was aimed against a mafia scumbag; like I said, actions speak louder than words.
You should think twice before judging someone who, unlike you, did not helped the mafia with their votes. My suggestion is that you shut the fuck up before, yet again, you do another great disservice to the town, with your ridiculous bullshit.
Do you still not realize that it is wrong to put yourself before the community?
What is a vampire? Are you really stupid enough to not understand a simple metaphorical reference for people who only care about their own interests.
You were a vampire in MWIII because you placed your own interests above the well being of the community, you with your irrational suspicions and your naive voting decisions you helped the mafia gangs.
Vampires can be mafia or townies, the one thing about vampires is that they are always detrimental to the community; in other words, they are blood suckers, they suck the life out of organizations, for their own benefit, at the expense of everybody whom is genuinely involved and interested in collective efforts.
Therefore, if you are genuinely interested in the well being of the community, it is of paramount importance to identify the vampires amongst the masses, so that you can ignore the vampires that are supposed to be townies, therefore rendering such vampires as something irrelevant that cannot possibly affect the outcome of an event.
So "vampires", it really is just a simple metaphorical reference that I choose to use to describe the mentioned selfish bastards. And you are attacking me for such a simple thing, once again, putting yourself before the community.
That's a fair point, in MWIII we were 12 characters and we had two mafia gangs; therefore it doesn't seem logical that now that we have 18 characters we only have one mafia family.
But that's all the more reason not to lynch someone on the first day. We need to have a good idea of the situation before using our voting rights.
If you're going to throw around insults at least get it right you fool. There is no such thing as an asshole it is an arsehole. An Ass is an animal, a cross between a donkey and a muel and an arse is what you talk out of most of the time. Please try to understand the difference, before trying to use them as insults.
I never siad what is a vampire you stupid little boy, I said what are you on? and I meant what have vampires got to do with anything, I understand what a metaphor is, but it's clear that your metaphor is bollocks, we are already talking about imaginary townies and Mafia, why do we need your imaginary vampires? (rhetorical question) you'll bring your wolves back up next, you clown. There is no need for your stupid metaphors and there is certainly no need for your man love of Keuna Reeves to be pasted in every post.
My votes didn't help anyone in the previous mafia wars, because neither my votes nor my suspisions got anyone killed/lynched, only you did that. I'm saying that your metaphor is stupid and not required and has nothing to do with helping the community.
and by the way you 'did not vote', you 'did not voted' doesn't make sense.
chelsea11
21-03-2011, 12:27
Looks like round two for Amateur and Smudger :laugh:
As for the number of mafia families, with the high number of people this time around, surely its not going to be just one? Unless its one big family? Which would be better for us though?
A serial killer would be interesting though, adds an extra randomness and insecurity to it all.
Papa is very offensive in this game. It is funny, but still. Maybe something to think about? He hasn't made as many offensives this early in other games...
If you're going to throw around insults at least get it right you fool. There is no such thing as an asshole it is an arsehole. An Ass is an animal, a cross between a donkey and a muel and an arse is what you talk out of most of the time. Please try to understand the difference, before trying to use them as insults.
http://dictionary.reference.com/browse/Asshole
Asshole,
a) a stupid, mean, or contemptible person.
b) a worthless and annoying person. (Also a term of address. Rude and derogatory.) : Somebody get this asshole outta here before I bust in his face!
c) the worst part of a place or thing.
Origin: 1350–1400; Middle English arshole
EDIT
Next time, use your fucking head before making false statements.
I never siad what is a vampire you stupid little boy, I said what are you on? and I meant what have vampires got to do with anything, I understand what a metaphor is, but it's clear that your metaphor is bollocks, we are already talking about imaginary townies and Mafia, why do we need your imaginary vampires? (rhetorical question) you'll bring your wolves back up next, you clown. There is no need for your stupid metaphors and there is certainly no need for your man love of Keuna Reeves to be pasted in every post.
My votes didn't help anyone in the previous mafia wars, because neither my votes nor my suspisions got anyone killed/lynched, only you did that. I'm saying that your metaphor is stupid and not required and has nothing to do with helping the community.
and by the way you 'did not vote', you 'did not voted' doesn't make sense.
God you are stupid, beyond belief. You helped the mafia, you voted against two different townies in less than four days. Your actions didn't get anyone killed because the community reacted, otherwise, you would have been happy voting in favor of lynching townies.
You are a vampire, I don't know if townie or mafia, but you certainly are not worth my vote nor my time. Go fuck yourself.
Papa is very offensive in this game. It is funny, but still. Maybe something to think about? He hasn't made as many offensives this early in other games...
:laugh:
I find this offensive!
EDIT: More than 100 posts already! I have a feeling this thread is going to rival Meyyappan's wanking one for best of the year.
chelsea11
21-03-2011, 12:49
http://blogs.westword.com/showandtell/00%20shit%20just%20got%20real. jpg
smudger2008
21-03-2011, 12:55
http://dictionary.reference.com/browse/Asshole
Asshole,
a) a stupid, mean, or contemptible person.
b) a worthless and annoying person. (Also a term of address. Rude and derogatory.) : Somebody get this asshole outta here before I bust in his face!
c) the worst part of a place or thing.
Origin: 1350–1400; Middle English arshole
Next time, use your fucking head before making false statements.
what? you're using an American dictionary to prove a term in English?
Really, what do Americans know about English (again Rhetorical). A statement in an American dictionary doesn't prove any point in English.
The term asshole comes from the use of ass in place of the term arse (meaning backside) in poular media in a bid to avoid censoring, this developed to fools using the term asshole (which is why your Amercian dictionary gives it a meaning).
Anyway, back to the game, has anyone got any suspisions? or are we going to wait to let the mafia pick off some townies before any action is taken, like in the last game.
EDIT: I've just noticed the end of your post, "Go fuck yourself'. Really I don't think there is any need for such a comment, what are you on?
Papa is very offensive in this game. It is funny, but still. Maybe something to think about? He hasn't made as many offensives this early in other games...
A fair point mind.
Not only did he break his "I am a mafia" tradition, he's also become very offensive as you say. Possibly trying to shift the suspicions away from him as early as possible unlike previous games, and doing so by jumping on a bandwagon and contributing towards a potential hope for a lynching?
I'm not saying Papa is mafia, or even that his actions are completely 'suspicious' so to speak, they're just...different. Worth making note of though for sure. Possibly it's the case where the previous accusers of myself are mafia, in the hope of getting the ball rolling and persuading the real townies to follow? Or it could even be the complete opposite in the sense that the one or two who have initally jumped on me for my Pinocchio avatar are just paranoid town folk, and everyone else who then sneaked onto the bandwagon are actually mafia?
I'm confused to be honest, but there's a few small theories there, worth just keeping an eye on at these early stages.
what? you're using an American dictionary to prove a term in English?
Really, what do Americans know about English (again Rhetorical). A statement in an American dictionary doesn't prove any point in English.
The term asshole comes from the use of ass in place of the term arse (meaning backside) in poular media in a bid to avoid censoring, this developed to fools using the term asshole (which is why your Amercian dictionary gives it a meaning).
Anyway, back to the game, has anyone got any suspisions? or are we going to wait to let the mafia pick off some townies before any action is taken, like in the last game.
To be fair to Amateur, his IP shows as Puerto Rico. Whether that's true or not is another matter, but American culture is so strong thesedays we'll all probably be saying ass as opposed to arse come 20 years time. Also helps that you could probably get away with saying the American version on TV, but not the English due to it being slightly more harsh in tone.
As for our strategy, I honestly don't know. I mean, it might be foolish to try and lynch someone in the very first day due to the fact we've no evidence or suspicion. It might be worth seeing how many mafia families there is, or if there's even a serial killer before trying to cement a specific strategy. With there being more townies in the game currently (has to be right?), even including 'treacherous' townies, cops, doctors, whatever, we'd probably be taking a risk by going gung-ho for the lynch I think. We've still a long time to go before the sun goes down though, so we just need to see what develops I guess.
smudger2008
21-03-2011, 13:03
To be fair to Amateur, his IP shows as Puerto Rico. Whether that's true or not is another matter, but American culture is so strong thesedays we'll all probably be saying ass as opposed to arse come 20 years time. Also helps that you could probably get away with saying the American version on TV, but not the English due to it being slightly more harsh in tone.
Which is my point that Asshole is a made up term by Americans, to replace the English term of Arsehole.
Which is my point that Asshole is a made up term by Americans, to replace the English term of Arsehole.
We could do roundabouts on slightly altered terms from many languages, lets just not even go there. This is Mafia Wars, not a 'spelling bee'.
smudger2008
21-03-2011, 13:10
We could do roundabouts on slightly altered terms from many languages, lets just not even go there. This is Mafia Wars, not a 'spelling bee'.
I'm not intersted in the spelling, I never mentioned spelling. But whatever.
So this is Day 1 yeah? Was in Manchester all weekend so haven't been on.
Skimming through, it's the usual laid back approach to start with, which doesn't make sense to me. Have to say though, this game truly starts for me when Meyyappan explains his theories.
smudger2008
21-03-2011, 13:14
So this is Day 1 yeah? Was in Manchester all weekend so haven't been on.
Skimming through, it's the usual laid back approach to start with, which doesn't make sense to me. Have to say though, this game truly starts for me when Meyyappan explains his theories.
Is he playing?
what? you're using an American dictionary to prove a term in English?
Really, what do Americans know about English (again Rhetorical). A statement in an American dictionary doesn't prove any point in English.
The term asshole comes from the use of ass in place of the term arse (meaning backside) in poular media in a bid to avoid censoring, this developed to fools using the term asshole (which is why your Amercian dictionary gives it a meaning).
Anyway, back to the game, has anyone got any suspisions? or are we going to wait to let the mafia pick off some townies before any action is taken, like in the last game.
EDIT: I've just noticed the end of your post, "Go fuck yourself'. Really I don't think there is any need for such a comment, what are you on?
Oh the "go fuck yourself" bit, well it just means that I'm fed up with your bullshit, and obviously, it also means that in my opinion it is justified; in MWIII you started attacking me for no reason at all, and in MWIV you are doing the same thing.
The game has just begun, no event has taken place, therefore I will settle with something as simple as "go fuck yourself" before hearing more of your bullshit, as simple as that.
You don't give a fuck about townies, you don't give a fuck about the community, therefore, as far as I'm concerned, go fuck yourself, and you might as well take your English dictionary with you.
You say one thing with your words but your actions say another thing, I do not trust you, you are a suspicious character to my eyes; I refrain myself from saying more because the game has just begun.
And I make myself as clear as possible, that I have no personal problems with you, if you make a point that I think is fair, I will give you my two cents; but you did attacked me straight away, saying that your lynch in MWIII was my fault, which is a false statement.
When someone starts making false statements since day one, that someone is one of the first names to goes into my list of suspects. I'm just hoping for the sake of the community, that if you are a townie, that you start playing for the community, not against it.
To be fair to Amateur, his IP shows as Puerto Rico. Whether that's true or not is another matter, but American culture is so strong thesedays we'll all probably be saying ass as opposed to arse come 20 years time. Also helps that you could probably get away with saying the American version on TV, but not the English due to it being slightly more harsh in tone.
To be honest, it is mostly because of the TV, these days, in TV you mostly hear asshole, and that kinda gets stuck in your head.
Though I do think arsehole sounds better somehow, it's not a nice word anyways, but to me it just sounds better than the "American" version.
chelsea11
21-03-2011, 13:20
So this is Day 1 yeah? Was in Manchester all weekend so haven't been on.
Skimming through, it's the usual laid back approach to start with, which doesn't make sense to me. Have to say though, this game truly starts for me when Meyyappan explains his theories.
What other approach is there? Nobody can go gung ho exactly, from the start since there is nothing to go on. What can anybody say at the start other than a usual generic comment tbf?
It's starting to get going now though I think, which is good. Still a good bit of time left in the day as well, so if more get on later it could be very beneficial to the town. I have today and tomorrow off work so I can be on anytime but I presume others are working/college etc until later?
So this is Day 1 yeah? Was in Manchester all weekend so haven't been on.
Skimming through, it's the usual laid back approach to start with, which doesn't make sense to me. Have to say though, this game truly starts for me when Meyyappan explains his theories.
:laugh:
I completely forgot about Meyyappan. Wow.
smudger2008
21-03-2011, 13:22
Oh the "go fuck yourself" bit, well it just means that I'm fed up with your bullshit, and obviously, it also means that in my opinion it is justified; in MWIII you started attacking me for no reason at all, and in MWIV you are doing the same thing.
The game has just begun, no event has taken place, therefore I will settle with something as simple as "go fuck yourself" before hearing more of your bullshit, as simple as that.
You don't give a fuck about townies, you don't give a fuck about the community, therefore, as far as I'm concerned, go fuck yourself, and you might as well take your English dictionary with you.
You say one thing with your words but your actions say another thing, I do not trust you, you are a suspicious character to my eyes; I refrain myself from saying more because the game has just begun.
There is really no need to keep saying 'go fuck yourself' we are playing a game you idiotic little boy, it is uncalled for, please refrain from doing it.
Why is there no reponse on your man-love for Keanu Reeves?
A fair point mind.
Not only did he break his "I am a mafia" tradition, he's also become very offensive as you say. Possibly trying to shift the suspicions away from him as early as possible unlike previous games, and doing so by jumping on a bandwagon and contributing towards a potential hope for a lynching?
Oops, forgot about that. Not sure why exactly that would be suspicious though as I've said it when I've been town and I've said it when I've been Mafia. But for continuity's sake:
I am a member of the Mafia.
I'm not saying Papa is mafia, or even that his actions are completely 'suspicious' so to speak, they're just...different.
Indeed. I'm trying a tactic that I haven't tried before and if my theory is correct, I think I already have some leads.
Have to say though, this game truly starts for me when Meyyappan explains his theories.
:laugh: I can't wait!
Bammers05
21-03-2011, 13:28
So this is Day 1 yeah? Was in Manchester all weekend so haven't been on.
Skimming through, it's the usual laid back approach to start with, which doesn't make sense to me. Have to say though, this game truly starts for me when Meyyappan explains his theories.
What alternative approach would you recommend then?
chelsea11
21-03-2011, 13:35
I am a member of the Mafia.
I think we should really look at this. Very suspicious... :ninja:
Oops, forgot about that. Not sure why exactly that would be suspicious though as I've said it when I've been town and I've said it when I've been Mafia. But for continuity's sake:
I am a member of the Mafia.
Indeed. I'm trying a tactic that I haven't tried before and if my theory is correct, I think I already have some leads.
You might want to hold onto them leads for the short timebeing. See how it plays out and if anyone in particular changes their pattern. Plus, if you were to express your leads/theories now so early then obviously the mafia will be able to capitalise on it...unless you spew out false leads and theories to throw them off the trail. :cool: Everyone will be confused then though. :laugh:
I think we should really look at this. Very suspicious... :ninja:
http://media.comicvine.com/uploads/2/27874/600107-oh_you_super.jpg
EDIT:
You might want to hold onto them leads for the short timebeing. See how it plays out and if anyone in particular changes their pattern. Plus, if you were to express your leads/theories now so early then obviously the mafia will be able to capitalise on it...unless you spew out false leads and theories to throw them off the trail. :cool: Everyone will be confused then though. :laugh:
That's the plan. Hopefully later when it's time to start voting, my suspicions will have solidified.
By the way, those are some rather Mafia-esque shades on that smiley are they not? :hmm:
As for our strategy, I honestly don't know. I mean, it might be foolish to try and lynch someone in the very first day due to the fact we've no evidence or suspicion. It might be worth seeing how many mafia families there is, or if there's even a serial killer before trying to cement a specific strategy. With there being more townies in the game currently (has to be right?), even including 'treacherous' townies, cops, doctors, whatever, we'd probably be taking a risk by going gung-ho for the lynch I think. We've still a long time to go before the sun goes down though, so we just need to see what develops I guess.
That's a fair point.
I was thinking about making a great guess on the first day, like the game that you expect to see and the people that you expect to be mafia; I mean, for instance, we all know the people that were mafia in MWIII and the people that were townies in MWIII and the people who did not played MWIII, therefore we could formulate a guess game based on different theories.
Although it would be a massive guess, at the end of the day, it is better than nothing. I think that's the best thing we can do on the first day, formulate a random and yet logical guess, since we have no events to give us clues.
One character that I think could be mafia, even though I have absolutely no actual evidence, is Chelsea11, just because he was lynched early on in both MWII and MWIII, because he was a townie in both wars, therefore the probabilities of him being mafia are higher than other people.
Though voting on such a baseless suspicion at this stage, would be stupid. We should have a decent theory that is based on night events, before using our voting rights.
My guess is that we have two mafia families, each with three members, which leaves us with twelve townies; and, a wild card somewhere, maybe a treacherous townie or a serial killer, which would leave us with eleven townies.
What do you think?
My guess is that we have two mafia families, each with three members, which leaves us with twelve townies; and, a wild card somewhere, maybe a treacherous townie or a serial killer, which would leave us with eleven townies.
What do you think?
That sounds logical. I expect at least one of a Cop and a Doctor as well, and quite likely both.
The problem with the past few games was that no one had enough backbone. People would make a half hearted theories and strategies, but not follow through with it, probably due to being afraid of getting lynched.
The only way we're going to win this time around is if we call out people who we are suspicious of and really push it. Nothing less than 100% will work.
By the way, those are some rather Mafia-esque shades on that smiley are they not? :hmm:
:laugh:
One character that I think could be mafia, even though I have absolutely no actual evidence, is Chelsea11, just because he was lynched early on in both MWII and MWIII, because he was a townie in both wars, therefore the probabilities of him being mafia are higher than other people.
But all roles are drawn at random as far as I'm aware. Meaning chelsea11 would still have a 50/50 chance of being either townie or mafia. Nothing is based off of previous games as far as roles go. It's like a coin toss essentially. I'm not saying that chelsea11 isn't mafia, he could very well be. I'm just saying that if that's your reasoning, or theory, then it couldn't be more wrong, that's all.
Damn it! I think I might end up voting on the first day, there is a dude that is just too suspicious to ignore.
EDIT
Or not. If I vote today it would go against my principles, but damn it, the first day sucks no matter how many people comment.
smudger2008
21-03-2011, 14:07
:laugh:
But all roles are drawn at random as far as I'm aware. Meaning chelsea11 would still have a 50/50 chance of being either townie or mafia. Nothing is based off of previous games as far as roles go. It's like a coin toss essentially. I'm not saying that chelsea11 isn't mafia, he could very well be. I'm just saying that if that's your reasoning, or theory, then it couldn't be more wrong, that's all.
I hate to admit it but Amateur is right on that point.
The odds of getting heads or tails on a coin toss is 50/50, but if you toss that coin 3 times, then the probabilites change based on past events.
i.e. if the coin landed on heads the fisrt two times, there would be a greater chance of it landing on tails the third time, it would no longer be 50/50
Therefore Chelsea has a higher chance of being mafia
The problem with the past few games was that no one had enough backbone. People would make a half hearted theories and strategies, but not follow through with it, probably due to being afraid of getting lynched.
The only way we're going to win this time around is if we call out people who we are suspicious of and really push it. Nothing less than 100% will work.
Precisely. There's been too much "I have my suspicions of so-and-so but I'm not entirely convinced" talk going on. The only way the townies are gonna win for a change is by taking risks.
I hate to admit it but Amateur is right on that point.
The odds of getting heads or tails on a coin toss is 50/50, but if you toss that coin 3 times, then the probabilites change based on past events.
i.e. if the coin landed on heads the fisrt two times, there would be a greater chance of it landing on tails the third time, it would no longer be 50/50
Therefore Chelsea has a higher chance of being mafia
A coin has no memory. HHHHH is as likely as HTHTH, HHHTT or any other combination.
EDIT: I'll elaborate slightly as I imagine I'll get a response such as 'but it's a 50-50 chance so it will even out to equal heads and tails'. This belief is known as the Gambler's Fallacy.
Basically if you have to predict the result of a coin toss, it's a 50-50 or 1/2 chance to be heads. Therefore it follows that two heads in two tosses would be 1/4, 3 in 3 would be 1/8, 4 in 4 would be 1/16 and 5/5 would be 1/32.
However, this is only true if you are predicting before the first coin has been tossed. Once the first four coins have been tossed (and let's say they were all heads), the probability of the fifth coin also being a head would no longer be 1/32, but 1/2 again or 50-50.
So, applying this logic to the game, I can't remember what Chelsea11 was in the first round but let's say he was Town, and for argument's sake we'll say there was a 50-50 chance of being Town or Mafia (though with variables such as serial killers and so on, there obviously wasn't). Before the first Mafia Wars started there would have been a 1/16 chance of Chelsea11 being Town for all of the first four games. However, now that the first three are over, the probability that he is a townie is back to 50-50.
And that, children, concludes the lesson. Essays on my desk by 4 o'clock tomorrow.
Bammers05
21-03-2011, 14:20
A coin has no memory. HHHHH is as likely as HTHTH, HHHTT or any other combination.
True, but, by the laws of probability, it'd be more likely that, if the coin has been landing solely on heads before, it would land, at some point, on tails, so I don't think it's theory that should be ignored.
chelsea11
21-03-2011, 14:21
I hate to admit it but Amateur is right on that point.
The odds of getting heads or tails on a coin toss is 50/50, but if you toss that coin 3 times, then the probabilites change based on past events.
i.e. if the coin landed on heads the fisrt two times, there would be a greater chance of it landing on tails the third time, it would no longer be 50/50
Therefore Chelsea has a higher chance of being mafia
He's not actually tossing a coin to make his selections. But hey, if that's the reasoning you want to go with to get a first lynch so be it. It'll be your loss though.
So that's two mafia slayings and a potential lynch in the first days. I really am the token first to be killed off guy, no matter what I say or do
Ali_BWFC
21-03-2011, 14:22
I hate to admit it but Amateur is right on that point.
The odds of getting heads or tails on a coin toss is 50/50, but if you toss that coin 3 times, then the probabilites change based on past events.
i.e. if the coin landed on heads the fisrt two times, there would be a greater chance of it landing on tails the third time, it would no longer be 50/50
Therefore Chelsea has a higher chance of being mafia
You're wrong with your logic there. If you toss a coin 3 times, you are equally as likely to get a head each time.... surely?
So getting HHH is as likey as getting HHT or TTT or THT for example. The coin doesn't think "Oooh, he's had heads the past 2 times.... I'll try to make this one tails".
But it's good to see people stop arguing for a moment and try and actually think about tactics. Though it will probably change as soon as Football777 and Amateur have a minor disagreement.
BTW, this post might come up about 5 times! Damn website playing up.
I hate to admit it but Amateur is right on that point.
The odds of getting heads or tails on a coin toss is 50/50, but if you toss that coin 3 times, then the probabilites change based on past events.
i.e. if the coin landed on heads the fisrt two times, there would be a greater chance of it landing on tails the third time, it would no longer be 50/50
Therefore Chelsea has a higher chance of being mafia
Finally, we agree on something, that's more or less my point, nothing personal, but the dude has only participated in two wars and has been a townie in both wars, so to me, being a townie three times on the run sounds more difficult than drifting from mafia to townie in the last four games.
It's just a theory though, but that's all we can do at this stage. At least, it has encouraged communication, which is positive in my opinion.
Though having said that, I will not remotely close to voting on it though, simply because a lynch at such an early stage is not worth the risk, no matter what.
And also, because Chelsea11 is contributing with a lot of comments, and that info can be decisive at a later stage, at this stage, it would just leave us exactly where we are now.
Actually, now that I think of it, I find it very suspicious that you of all people agree with me on such a theory.
Bammers, take a look at my edit to my post.
smudger2008
21-03-2011, 14:39
A coin has no memory. HHHHH is as likely as HTHTH, HHHTT or any other combination.
EDIT: I'll elaborate slightly as I imagine I'll get a response such as 'but it's a 50-50 chance so it will even out to equal heads and tails'. This belief is known as the Gambler's Fallacy.
Basically if you have to predict the result of a coin toss, it's a 50-50 or 1/2 chance to be heads. Therefore it follows that two heads in two tosses would be 1/4, 3 in 3 would be 1/8, 4 in 4 would be 1/16 and 5/5 would be 1/32.
However, this is only true if you are predicting before the first coin has been tossed. Once the first four coins have been tossed (and let's say they were all heads), the probability of the fifth coin also being a head would no longer be 1/32, but 1/2 again or 50-50.
So, applying this logic to the game, I can't remember what Chelsea11 was in the first round but let's say he was Town, and for argument's sake we'll say there was a 50-50 chance of being Town or Mafia (though with variables such as serial killers and so on, there obviously wasn't). Before the first Mafia Wars started there would have been a 1/16 chance of Chelsea11 being Town for all of the first four games. However, now that the first three are over, the probability that he is a townie is back to 50-50.
And that, children, concludes the lesson. Essays on my desk by 4 o'clock tomorrow.
Probabilty is not relevant to whether you decided before or after. We are considering three events, they are connected. As three coin tosses would be.
He's not actually tossing a coin to make his selections. But hey, if that's the reasoning you want to go with to get a first lynch so be it. It'll be your loss though.
So that's two mafia slayings and a potential lynch in the first days. I really am the token first to be killed off guy, no matter what I say or do
I'm not saying you're mafia, I'm not saying you should be lynched. I just stated a fact about probabilies.
You're wrong with your logic there. If you toss a coin 3 times, you are equally as likely to get a head each time.... surely?
It's not my logic, It's mathematical fact. (GCSE level maths)
Finally, we agree on something, that's precisely my point, nothing personal, but the dude has been a townie the last two times, has been killed early the last two times, and a way of fixing that would be by making him mafia.
meh
I hate to admit it but Amateur is right on that point.
The odds of getting heads or tails on a coin toss is 50/50, but if you toss that coin 3 times, then the probabilites change based on past events.
i.e. if the coin landed on heads the fisrt two times, there would be a greater chance of it landing on tails the third time, it would no longer be 50/50
Therefore Chelsea has a higher chance of being mafia
:faceplm:
A coin has no history. Every single time you throw it up, it is 50/50. Simple as that.
smudger2008
21-03-2011, 14:48
:faceplm:
A coin has no history. Every single time you throw it up, it is 50/50. Simple as that.
You really don't understand the concept of probabilites do you?
you are wrong simple as that.
EDIT: explained a bit more clearly for the more mathematically challanged. Consider it with 3 coins rather than the same coin tosses 3 times.
With 3 coins, there are 8 possible outcomes. Of these, 3 of the possible outcomes have 1 head. (TTH, HTT, THT)
Therefore the probability of this is 3/8 or 38% (rounded)
Of these, 3 outcomes have 2 heads. (HHT, THH, HTH)
Therefore the probability of this is 3/8 or 38% (rounded)
Of these, 1 outcome has 3 heads. (HHH)
Therefore the probability of this is 1/8 or 13% (rounded)
So the chance of getting 2 heads is 38% but the chance of getting 3 heads is 13%.
I think that is as clear as its going to get!
A coin has no memory. HHHHH is as likely as HTHTH, HHHTT or any other combination.
EDIT: I'll elaborate slightly as I imagine I'll get a response such as 'but it's a 50-50 chance so it will even out to equal heads and tails'. This belief is known as the Gambler's Fallacy.
Basically if you have to predict the result of a coin toss, it's a 50-50 or 1/2 chance to be heads. Therefore it follows that two heads in two tosses would be 1/4, 3 in 3 would be 1/8, 4 in 4 would be 1/16 and 5/5 would be 1/32.
However, this is only true if you are predicting before the first coin has been tossed. Once the first four coins have been tossed (and let's say they were all heads), the probability of the fifth coin also being a head would no longer be 1/32, but 1/2 again or 50-50.
So, applying this logic to the game, I can't remember what Chelsea11 was in the first round but let's say he was Town, and for argument's sake we'll say there was a 50-50 chance of being Town or Mafia (though with variables such as serial killers and so on, there obviously wasn't). Before the first Mafia Wars started there would have been a 1/16 chance of Chelsea11 being Town for all of the first four games. However, now that the first three are over, the probability that he is a townie is back to 50-50.
And that, children, concludes the lesson. Essays on my desk by 4 o'clock tomorrow.
Perhaps I'm missing something, but, Chelsea11 has only played in MWII and MWIII, and in both he has been townie and has been killed early in the game. I'm just saying, being a townie three times on the run sounds more difficult than drifting from mafia to townie in the last four games.
In any case, I have no intention of voting on the first day, simply because the kill will not provide us with useful information.
A coin has no memory. HHHHH is as likely as HTHTH, HHHTT or any other combination.
EDIT: I'll elaborate slightly as I imagine I'll get a response such as 'but it's a 50-50 chance so it will even out to equal heads and tails'. This belief is known as the Gambler's Fallacy.
Basically if you have to predict the result of a coin toss, it's a 50-50 or 1/2 chance to be heads. Therefore it follows that two heads in two tosses would be 1/4, 3 in 3 would be 1/8, 4 in 4 would be 1/16 and 5/5 would be 1/32.
However, this is only true if you are predicting before the first coin has been tossed. Once the first four coins have been tossed (and let's say they were all heads), the probability of the fifth coin also being a head would no longer be 1/32, but 1/2 again or 50-50.
So, applying this logic to the game, I can't remember what Chelsea11 was in the first round but let's say he was Town, and for argument's sake we'll say there was a 50-50 chance of being Town or Mafia (though with variables such as serial killers and so on, there obviously wasn't). Before the first Mafia Wars started there would have been a 1/16 chance of Chelsea11 being Town for all of the first four games. However, now that the first three are over, the probability that he is a townie is back to 50-50.
And that, children, concludes the lesson. Essays on my desk by 4 o'clock tomorrow.
Perhaps I'm missing something, but, Chelsea11 has only played in MWII and MWIII, and in both he has been townie and has been killed early in the game. I'm just saying, being a townie three times on the run sounds more difficult than drifting from mafia to townie in the last four games.
In any case, I have no intention of voting on the first day, simply because the kill will not provide us with useful information.
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_seVd99frSks/S8Pcgid_hZI/AAAAAAAAAmE/CTG2n62IGFM/s1600/facepalm-lion-facepalm-demotivational-poster-1240941693.jpg
Ok Smudger, Amateur, listen up.
Smudger, you seemed to have a problem with the idea that the probability of the fifth coin being a fifth head is 1/32 if you predict before the first one's thrown, but 1/2 if you predict after the first four. Well hopefully you'll understand this: the difference is one of prediction of any sort of run, not the probability of 5 heads.
If we have five coins and I say that I reckon it will go HHHHH, the probability of that last coin being a heads is 1/32. If I say it will be HTHTH, the probability of that last coin being a heads is 1/32. If I say it will be TTTTT, the probability of it being a tails is 1/32.
This is because I am making five predictions, each one relying on those before me being correct. Each of these five predictions has a probability of 1/2. So the probability of the fifth one being correct is 1/2 to the fifth power, or 1/32.
If I'm only making one prediction, the probability is 1/2.
Does this make more sense?
Bammers05
21-03-2011, 15:03
Bammers, take a look at my edit to my post.
Right, I understand now.
smudger2008
21-03-2011, 15:05
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_seVd99frSks/S8Pcgid_hZI/AAAAAAAAAmE/CTG2n62IGFM/s1600/facepalm-lion-facepalm-demotivational-poster-1240941693.jpg
I'm not sure if this is directed at me or at Amateur but, have a look at my edit and see that makes it a bit more clear for you.
smudger2008
21-03-2011, 15:08
Ok Smudger, Amateur, listen up.
Smudger, you seemed to have a problem with the idea that the probability of the fifth coin being a fifth head is 1/32 if you predict before the first one's thrown, but 1/2 if you predict after the first four. Well hopefully you'll understand this: the difference is one of prediction of any sort of run, not the probability of 5 heads.
If we have five coins and I say that I reckon it will go HHHHH, the probability of that last coin being a heads is 1/32. If I say it will be HTHTH, the probability of that last coin being a heads is 1/32. If I say it will be TTTTT, the probability of it being a tails is 1/32.
This is because I am making five predictions, each one relying on those before me being correct. Each of these five predictions has a probability of 1/2. So the probability of the fifth one being correct is 1/2 to the fifth power, or 1/32.
If I'm only making one prediction, the probability is 1/2.
Does this make more sense?
This is in my edit above but I dont think you've read it.
With 3 coins, there are 8 possible outcomes. Of these, 3 of the possible outcomes have 1 head. (TTH, HTT, THT)
Therefore the probability of this is 3/8 or 38% (rounded)
Of these, 3 outcomes have 2 heads. (HHT, THH, HTH)
Therefore the probability of this is 3/8 or 38% (rounded)
Of these, 1 outcome has 3 heads. (HHH)
Therefore the probability of this is 1/8 or 13% (rounded)
If Chelsea is townie 3 times, that is equivelant to 3 heads, isnt it?
I think thats as clear as I can make it, if you still think I'm wrong we'll have to agree to disagree.
If Chelsea is townie 3 times, that is equivelant to 3 heads, isnt it?
I think thats as clear as I can make it, if you still think I'm wrong we'll have to agree to disagree.
I think you're misreading the situation entirely. The roles for each War are chosen completely at random as far as I'm aware, and with that said, this means that roles in previous Wars are completely overlooked. The roles are random for each War inidividually, hence exactly why the chances of being town/mafia are 50/50, every single War, because it is completely random - and seperate.
Anyway, this is a waste of time. I think we've come to the conclusion that even contemplating being suspicious of chelsea11 for that 'theory' is just silly.
Right, I understand now.
Top of the class.
This is in my edit above but I dont think you've read it.
With 3 coins, there are 8 possible outcomes. Of these, 3 of the possible outcomes have 1 head. (TTH, HTT, THT)
Therefore the probability of this is 3/8 or 38% (rounded)
Of these, 3 outcomes have 2 heads. (HHT, THH, HTH)
Therefore the probability of this is 3/8 or 38% (rounded)
Of these, 1 outcome has 3 heads. (HHH)
Therefore the probability of this is 1/8 or 13% (rounded)
If Chelsea is townie 3 times, that is equivelant to 3 heads, isnt it?
I think thats as clear as I can make it, if you still think I'm wrong we'll have to agree to disagree.
:faceplm:
Fine, Smudger, just do me a favour and if you're at a casino playing roulette and black comes up 5 times in a row, don't put your life savings on red thinking you can't lose.
Don't ask why, just trust me on this one for the good of your family :faceplm:.
chelsea11
21-03-2011, 15:19
I'm pretty sure the two previous games I was in were done by different people. Pain and Sminky? Either way it doesn't really matter, it seems I'm top of some people's hitlist and not for others. I find it strange that coin tossing and probability are the sole focus of trying for a lynch. Scraping the bottom of the barrel to get the mafia score up to 2, possibly 3, by the end of the first day/night period?
EDIT: I would completely understand Smudger if the roles for all the Mafia Wars were assigned from the very first one.
Taking nothing away from, Amateur (I think?) who started this theory. We need something to get the talk going and come to a clear and stratagised conclusion. We need to take that inquisitive approach to everyone in the game so far and then decide whether we have any to go on.
smudger2008
21-03-2011, 15:22
I think you're misreading the situation entirely. The roles for each War are chosen completely at random as far as I'm aware, and with that said, this means that roles in previous Wars are completely overlooked. The roles are random for each War inidividually, hence exactly why the chances of being town/mafia are 50/50, every single War, because it is completely random - and seperate.
Anyway, this is a waste of time. I think we've come to the conclusion that even contemplating being suspicious of chelsea11 for that 'theory' is just silly.
A coin toss isnt random is it.
Top of the class.
:faceplm:
Fine, Smudger, just do me a favour and if you're at a casino playing roulette and black comes up 5 times in a row, don't put your life savings on red thinking you can't lose.
Don't ask why, just trust me on this one for the good of your family :faceplm:.
Why are you being so condescending. If you find a flaw in my maths above please point it out otherwise, please don't give advice as if you know better than me.
I'm pretty sure the two previous games I was in were done by different people. Pain and Sminky? Either way it doesn't really matter, it seems I'm top of some people's hitlist and not for others. I find it strange that coin tossing and probability are the sole focus of trying for a lynch. Scraping the bottom of the barrel to get the mafia score up to 2, possibly 3, by the end of the first day/night period?
To be honest, I think it was just a wrong theory, and now the debate has descended into who's right and who's wrong. :lol:
I wouldn't worry, it seems I'm top of many lists too because I like Disney and have a Pinocchio avatar. :huh:
chelsea11
21-03-2011, 15:25
To be honest, I think it was just a wrong theory, and now the debate has descended into who's right and who's wrong. :lol:
I wouldn't worry, it seems I'm top of many lists too because I like Disney and have a Pinocchio avatar. :huh:
:lol:
Well maybe I should change my avatar to something 'suspicious' and see if that changes the odds of me being Mafia over Townie. :hmm:
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_seVd99frSks/S8Pcgid_hZI/AAAAAAAAAmE/CTG2n62IGFM/s1600/facepalm-lion-facepalm-demotivational-poster-1240941693.jpg
Call it dumb if you want, have a laugh, put another rude facepalm poster up there, but the joke's on you if it turns out that Chelsea11 is mafia after all.
I will not vote on it today, but to me, Cheslea11 is the name that first came to my mind today. I'm simply sharing my thoughts with the rest of the community, because as we know, the careful bullshit that we have tried in the past has not worked for us, but then again, when someone comes with a blunt theory, people start jumping around.
We criticize when nobody takes a risk, we criticize when someone takes a risk; I'm sorry to say, but can you say anything without people jumping at you?
Yes, Chelsea11 has been townie in the only two wars he has played, yes he was killed early on, and yes Chelsea11 is amongst my main suspects, and it most certainly is not just because of the whole probability bullshit concerning roles.
And again, it is the first day, I will not vote on the first day, therefore my theory will not affect my voting in any way, only night events will be enough to get me to vote.
EDIT
Only night events will affect my voting decisions.
Why are you being so condescending. If you find a flaw in my maths above please point it out otherwise, please don't give advice as if you know better than me.
Mate, I've pointed out the flaws in your maths and logic repeatedly, and still you either fail to understand it or ignore it completely. Do me a favour and Google 'Gamblers' fallacy'.
Chelsea11's edit to his post up there summed it up, you'd be right in your maths if the roles for all the Mafia Wars were assigned from game one, but they aren't. He's therefore just as likely to be Mafia as anyone.
And as for the roulette advice, I just threw that in as another illustration because it's the exact same principle. If a roulette wheel has come up black, black, black, black, black, it's just as likely that the next ball will land on black as it is on red.
Call it dumb if you want, have a laugh, put another rude facepalm poster up there, but the joke's on you if it turns out that Chelsea11 is mafia after all.
No, it won't be. Nobody is saying that Chelsea11 is not Mafia, we're just saying that he is no more likely at this stage in the game to be Mafia than anyone is, and his roles in the previous games have no bearing on his role in this game. It is simple probability.
EDIT: Just noticed this:
A coin toss isnt random is it.
What the hell? In what way is a fair coin toss not random?
Call it dumb if you want, have a laugh, put another rude facepalm poster up there, but the joke's on you if it turns out that Chelsea11 is mafia after all.
I will not vote on it today, but to me, Cheslea11 is the name that first came to my mind today. I'm simply sharing my thoughts with the rest of the community, because as we know, the careful bullshit that we have tried in the past has not worked for us, but then again, when someone comes with a blunt theory, people start jumping around.
We criticize when nobody takes a risk, we criticize when someone takes a risk; I'm sorry to say, but can you say anything without people jumping at you?
Yes, Chelsea11 has been townie in the only two wars he has played, yes he was killed early on, and yes Chelsea11 is amongst my main suspects, and it most certainly is not just because of the whole probability bullshit concerning roles.
And again, it is the first day, I will not vote on the first day, therefore my theory will not affect my voting in any way, only night events will be enough to get me to vote.
How will the joke be on me? Are you serious right now? I've even said there's a chance chelsea11 could be Mafia, we just don't know about anyone right now. What I was criticising was the theory and ideology as to why you were/are suspicious of chelsea11, because it was wrong. So if chelsea11 turns out to be Mafia, no one will be right and no one will be wrong - because you've said you're suspicious but for all the wrong reasons in your original post. While I've said I'm not suspicious but he could also be Mafia. It's pointless to even discuss anymore.
You can say the bullshit hasn't worked for us in the past, and that can be easily acceptable for MWI and II, but as far as III goes, it was a closer affair. Albeit I was Mafia during the last War, the theories banded about were a lot more accurate and it was a close War ultimately when you consider there was 2 Mafia families involved.
Ali_BWFC
21-03-2011, 15:34
Smudger, I'm with everyone else here.
If you toss a coin, the chances it will be heads is 50%. If you toss it again.... it will be 50%. Each choice is independent of the other.
If a coin has come up with 67 heads in a row, the chances it will be a heads in the next toss..... is 50%. Nothing has changed in the mean time.
smudger2008
21-03-2011, 15:36
Mate, I've pointed out the flaws in your maths and logic repeatedly, and still you either fail to understand it or ignore it completely. Do me a favour and Google 'Gamblers' fallacy'.
Chelsea11's edit to his post up there summed it up, you'd be right in your maths if the roles for all the Mafia Wars were assigned from game one, but they aren't. He's therefore just as likely to be Mafia as anyone.
And as for the roulette advice, I just threw that in as another illustration because it's the exact same principle. If a roulette wheel has come up black, black, black, black, black, it's just as likely that the next ball will land on black as it is on red.
I still disagree with you. But as I said earlier I am willing to agree to disagree. At least you put some facts down to argue your point instead of idiotic facepalms.
Also i'd like to make it clear again the fact that I think it is more likely that Chelsea is mafia is not me saying we should lynch him. Hunters avatar is still the top reason on my list!
I still disagree with you. But as I said earlier I am willing to agree to disagree. At least you put some facts down to argue your point instead of idiotic facepalms.
Also i'd like to make it clear again the fact that I think it is more likely that Chelsea is mafia is not me saying we should lynch him. Hunters avatar is still the top reason on my list!
It was only after my many posts full of facts and mathematical equations that I put my first facepalm and that was only when I was physically facepalming myself.
Anyway, as I said before, Chelsea11 may be Mafia, he may not. The only thing we do know is that his standing in the previous games has no effect on whether he is or not.
I am not defending Chelsea11, I am defending logic.
smudger2008
21-03-2011, 15:39
Smudger, I'm with everyone else here.
If you toss a coin, the chances it will be heads is 50%. If you toss it again.... it will be 50%. Each choice is independent of the other.
If a coin has come up with 67 heads in a row, the chances it will be a heads in the next toss..... is 50%. Nothing has changed in the mean time.
Ali ok we disagree.
Papa for the edit :laugh:
Ali ok we disagree.
Papa for the edit :laugh:
I'll let any other mistake go but if it's in bold or capitals, there's no way I can leave it!
P.s. He's completely right by the way.
How will the joke be on me? Are you serious right now? I've even said there's a chance chelsea11 could be Mafia, we just don't know about anyone right now. What I was criticising was the theory and ideology as to why you were/are suspicious of chelsea11, because it was wrong. So if chelsea11 turns out to be Mafia, no one will be right and no one will be wrong - because you've said you're suspicious but for all the wrong reasons in your original post. While I've said I'm not suspicious but he could also be Mafia. It's pointless to even discuss anymore.
You can say the bullshit hasn't worked for us in the past, and that can be easily acceptable for MWI and II, but as far as III goes, it was a closer affair. Albeit I was Mafia during the last War, the theories banded about were a lot more accurate and it was a close War ultimately when you consider there was 2 Mafia families involved.
I think you are being very harsh right now, in MWIII we didn't do shit during the first day, we had a great breakthrough in the second day, and then we fucked it all up in the third day.
You are talking about decent theories but you must consider that this is the first day, what did we do in the first day of MWIII? I believe the effort this time around has been a lot better, a lot of people have not posted a single post yet, and yet, the amount of comments on the first day is far better than in MWIII.
We just need to wait for the night events before we can come up with the decent theories. As for Chelsea11, it's not just the probabilities thing, it's something more, but it's certainly not good enough to affect my voting right.
He's not actually tossing a coin to make his selections. But hey, if that's the reasoning you want to go with to get a first lynch so be it. It'll be your loss though.
So that's two mafia slayings and a potential lynch in the first days. I really am the token first to be killed off guy, no matter what I say or do
I don't know what Smudger wants exactly, but I'm not even remotely close to being interested in a first day lynch.
Actually, your paranoia of a first day lynch is questionable in my opinion. But whatever, I will wait until the second day, and if I'm not around by then, then at least the community will have something to start with.
Bammers05
21-03-2011, 15:51
We just need to wait for the night events before we can come up with the decent theories. As for Chelsea11, it's not just the probabilities thing, it's something more, but it's certainly not good enough to affect my voting right.
And what's that?
Ali_BWFC
21-03-2011, 15:53
I think you are being very harsh right now, in MWIII we didn't do shit during the first day, we had a great breakthrough in the second day, and then we fucked it all up in the third day.
You are talking about decent theories but you must consider that this is the first day, what did we do in the first day of MWIII? I believe the effort this time around has been a lot better, a lot of people have not posted a single post yet, and yet, the amount of comments on the first day is far better than in MWIII.
We just need to wait for the night events before we can come up with the decent theories. As for Chelsea11, it's not just the probabilities thing, it's something more, but it's certainly not good enough to affect my voting right.
I haven't noticed anything off about him yet. He has been posting more, though that is because I advised him to, in the signup thread (he was moaning about getting voted off early each time).
Ignoring smudger's lack of maths skills, maybe there is the possibility that Sminky has made it less random than before. There may be some that have played each game and not been mafia yet.
I think you are being very harsh right now, in MWIII we didn't do shit during the first day, we had a great breakthrough in the second day, and then we fucked it all up in the third day.
You are talking about decent theories but you must consider that this is the first day, what did we do in the first day of MWIII? I believe the effort this time around has been a lot better, a lot of people have not posted a single post yet, and yet, the amount of comments on the first day is far better than in MWIII.
We just need to wait for the night events before we can come up with the decent theories. As for Chelsea11, it's not just the probabilities thing, it's something more, but it's certainly not good enough to affect my voting right.
Yeah, the effort has increased tenfold so far. I was literally checking back through the old Wars, and we've already surpassed the previous Day 1 pages, with quite a way to go still before the night looms. It wouldn't surprise me if we hit the 20 page mark by the end of the night to be honest.
I'm not sure about chelsea11, but I'm not sure about anyone right now. I find it a bit obvious that chelsea11 would change his tactics this War. I mean, he rarely contributed and posted, and was picked off by Mafia as a result. He's got no choice this War but to actually post more and become more involved with theories etc. I don't blame him. Although it'd be hilarious if he was killed again by the Mafia first off. :laugh: I'd feel sorry for him mind.
smudger2008
21-03-2011, 15:57
I haven't noticed anything off about him yet. He has been posting more, though that is because I advised him to, in the signup thread (he was moaning about getting voted off early each time).
Ignoring smudger's lack of maths skills, maybe there is the possibility that Sminky has made it less random than before. There may be some that have played each game and not been mafia yet.
lack of maths skills :laugh: I have a degree in Civil Engineering :laugh:
It would be really harsh on Chelsea if he was the fisrt to be killed again, hehe
lack of maths skills :laugh: I have a degree in Civil Engineering :laugh:
From where? :erm:
Ali_BWFC
21-03-2011, 16:03
lack of maths skills :laugh: I have a degree in Civil Engineering :laugh:
It would be really harsh on Chelsea if he was the fisrt to be killed again, hehe
Well they obviously haven't explained to you that a coin doesn't have a brain, and has no idea of what the result was, when it was previously flipped :D
smudger2008
21-03-2011, 16:03
From where? :erm:
Liverpool
10 years ago
To be fair to Smudger and the University of Liverpool, it is more of an issue of logic than straight maths.
But still...
smudger2008
21-03-2011, 16:12
To be fair to Smudger and the University of Liverpool, it is more of an issue of logic than straight maths.
But still...
My maths was not wrong, I think you already agreed to that!!
The only piont of disagreement was whether the events are linked
We all know chelsea11 will get killed first time tonight just for the sake of piss take. :lol:
I bet he's legitimately annoyed at the thought. :lol:
My maths was not wrong, I think you already agreed to that!!
The application of your maths was wrong. You failed to comprehend the principle of the representativeness heuristic that was obscuring your understanding and due to this you were heavily mistaken in what is a really quite basic matter of probability.
smudger2008
21-03-2011, 16:19
We all know chelsea11 will get killed first time tonight just for the sake of piss take. :lol:
I bet he's legitimately annoyed at the thought. :lol:
That would be really unfair on him, especially as he has made an effort to get involved early this time
My maths was not wrong, I think you already agreed to that!!
The application of your maths was wrong. You failed to comprehend the principle of the representativeness heuristic that was obscuring your understanding and due to this you were heavily mistaken in what is a really quite basic matter of probability.
Yeah, the effort has increased tenfold so far. I was literally checking back through the old Wars, and we've already surpassed the previous Day 1 pages, with quite a way to go still before the night looms. It wouldn't surprise me if we hit the 20 page mark by the end of the night to be honest.
I'm not sure about chelsea11, but I'm not sure about anyone right now. I find it a bit obvious that chelsea11 would change his tactics this War. I mean, he rarely contributed and posted, and was picked off by Mafia as a result. He's got no choice this War but to actually post more and become more involved with theories etc. I don't blame him. Although it'd be hilarious if he was killed again by the Mafia first off. :laugh: I'd feel sorry for him mind.
Well that's the thing, as a townie I have no interest in gambling when it is not absolutely necessary, I have no interest of lynching Chelsea11 on the first day due to many reasons.
It's just a theory to discuss, and a theory that I will keep in mind until the night events change my mind. Hopefully, the night event that changes my mind is not the mafia killing Chelsea11 to find out that Chelsea11 is a townie; which of course, would be hilarious, but also a bummer.
This game is hilarious, I don't think it can get much better than this in terms of activity and continuity, and we still haven't heard from 777 and Meyyappan.
smudger2008
21-03-2011, 16:21
The application of your maths was wrong. You failed to comprehend the principle of the representativeness heuristic that was obscuring your understanding and due to this you were heavily mistaken in what is a really quite basic matter of probability.
I sitll disagree with you. I do not agree that the three mafia wars are not linked, and therefore my application is sound. Are we gonna keep going round this roundabout?
smudger2008
21-03-2011, 16:25
sorry system problem
I sitll disagree with you. I do not agree that the three mafia wars are not linked, and therefore my application is sound. Are we gonna keep going round this roundabout?
If you tell me that I agree with your maths I'm going to tell you exactly why I do not. When you say things like:
A coin toss isnt random is it.
I'm going to pull you up on them as they simply aren't true.
Have to say though, this game truly starts for me when Meyyappan explains his theories.
:laugh: You & me both, should be something special!
As for everything else I've just read, well I can honestly say I'm totally fucking confused, having just read far too much about probability & coin tossing...
chelsea11
21-03-2011, 16:35
I guess I'm not being lynched, which leaves it for the mafia to take me out in the night! :lol:
I guess it will be bitter sweet in the end.
chelsea11
21-03-2011, 16:38
I guess I'm not being lynched, which leaves it for the mafia to take me out in the night! :lol:
I guess it will be bitter sweet in the end.
chelsea11
21-03-2011, 16:38
I guess I'm not being lynched, which leaves it for the mafia to take me out in the night! :lol:
I guess it will be bitter sweet in the end.
Ali_BWFC
21-03-2011, 16:38
:laugh: You & me both, should be something special!
As for everything else I've just read, well I can honestly say I'm totally fucking confused, having just read far too much about probability & coin tossing...
Yeah, we need to get back on to the topic at hand. It's funny, because the past couple of games have started quite slowly, and then picked up later on. This one has started like a house on fire! Though a lot of the talk is about mathematical logic... :laugh:
:laugh: You & me both, should be something special!
As for everything else I've just read, well I can honestly say I'm totally fucking confused, having just read far too much about probability & coin tossing...
Indeed.
Back to regular scheduled programming.
We've still a long time left in just Day 1, and considering things start to become more active around 7pm+ we're in for a good start to the first day.
Right, so who hasn't posted yet? Contestants are:
Bammers
Hunter
Dale
Papa
Fick
Appswah
Ali
Dundon's
Joel
Billy Minof
Chelsea11
Amateur
Meyyappan
TheBishop
Smudger2008
Phatmann
Football777
Laughin' Man
smudger2008
21-03-2011, 16:57
I'm going to pull you up on them as they simply aren't true.
Nice use of text out of context, if you read it in context its clearly SARCASM (hope that's spelt right) :)
so no lynching then, I dont think there ever is on the first day is there?
EDIT : sorry this post was orginally posted before the past three, but the computer kept freezing.
There's still quite a bit of time left yet, but considering so many of us have been active I think it's not just a matter of who hasn't posted, but also who hasn't posted much as well. The more activity shown from everyone is a great effort, plus, we're likely to develop theories, see if anyone's game has changed etc.
Nice use of text out of context, if you read it in context its clearly SARCASM (hope that's spelt right) :)
so no lynching then, I dont think there ever is on the first day is there?
Alright, I'll bite.
Here's the context:
I think you're misreading the situation entirely. The roles for each War are chosen completely at random as far as I'm aware, and with that said, this means that roles in previous Wars are completely overlooked. The roles are random for each War inidividually, hence exactly why the chances of being town/mafia are 50/50, every single War, because it is completely random - and seperate.
Anyway, this is a waste of time. I think we've come to the conclusion that even contemplating being suspicious of chelsea11 for that 'theory' is just silly.
A coin toss isnt random is it.
How have I taken this out of context? How is this sarcasm? Hunter is saying that the selection for Mafia Wars is random, in the same manner as a coin toss is. I prefer the possibility that it was sarcasm to the possibility that you honestly don't believe coin tosses to be random, but I really don't see where this sarcasm is.
http://i13.photobucket.com/albums/a267/moskalel/sarcasm_detector.jpg
Frink's getting a reading of zero up in here.
EDIT: Actually, second thoughts, I'm bored of this. Shall we get on with the game and stop squabbling?
Anyone willing to stick their neck out and say they suspect someone?
I'm not going to lie, I didn't read all of the last two pages. It just seemed like a big discussion about probability.
And what's that?
You are reading too much into that Bammers old pal.
But why is it that Chelsea11 is one of my main suspects at this stage of the game? Because of his victim mode with his very first post, then quickly judging Papa for not saying the usual, then again saying that Papa is suspicious when Papa said the usual; I mean, if you are afraid of getting lynched early on, would you start by making wild accusations?
It just doesn't sound right, like I said, his demise at such an early stage would be fruitless, the same way anyone's demise at this stage would be fruitless; I'm just making my suspicions clear, and I'm also making it clear that I will not vote if I cannot associate the lynch with a night event; actions speak louder than words.
I'm not going to lie, I didn't read all of the last two pages. It just seemed like a big discussion about probability.
Probably was...
Ali_BWFC
21-03-2011, 17:25
You are reading too much into that Bammers old pal.
But why is it that Chelsea11 is one of my main suspects at this stage of the game? Because of his victim mode with his very first post, then quickly judging Papa for not saying the usual, then again saying that Papa is suspicious for some other reason; I mean, if you are afraid of getting lynched early on, would you start by making wild accusations?
It just doesn't sound right, like I said, his demise at such an early stage would be fruitless, the same way anyone's demise at this stage would be fruitless; I'm just making my suspicions clear, and I'm also making it clear that I will not vote if I cannot associate the lynch with a night event; actions speak louder than words.
It usually takes a day or so to get suspicions into place. Right now, I have none.... not even an incling. The first night session never really clears things up either.
Obviously chelsea11 has been highlighted by you.... I can see your reasons, but I'd like to see his response to this. We need to look at the responses to accusations closely.
Yeah. I think laughinman last War brought to light the possibility of posing certain questions to one another in the hope that the responses may shed light to what role they have, and their bluffing. It's easy enough for these responses to change slightly over time and that's when people may be caught out. It's worth possibly looking at.
Ali_BWFC
21-03-2011, 17:37
Yeah. I think laughinman last War brought to light the possibility of posing certain questions to one another in the hope that the responses may shed light to what role they have, and their bluffing. It's easy enough for these responses to change slightly over time and that's when people may be caught out. It's worth possibly looking at.
I didn't mean necessarily questioning people. Say you said "I suspect Amateur (for example) because [insert reason]".... his response would give a better idea of whether or not he is mafia.
I mean, we could ask the "suspect" questions.... but who would ask them? There is a chance that a mafia member could ask the questions.... obviously swaying it in their favour.
If you find something suspicious, then call someone out on it. If that person refuses to make a claim, then VOTE him. When he is up for the chop, he will have to make a claim if he wants to stay in the game and then if it is good enough, you UNVOTE.
It's as simple as that. We can't just sit back and do nothing. Issues need to be forced. It may seem harsh, but the town is 0-3. It's about time we win a game.
Meyyappan
21-03-2011, 17:42
Well, i could not go through the whole thread with the probability issues and all but i see that papa stated that he is a member of the mafia,no reason to say this if he was a townie,for it would just create disturbances for the town as the mafia already know who they are at night but was he fooling around then?Well seeing the amount of posts by him on this thread i dont think so....
Feel free to comment on the above analysis and expand it...
Vote PAPA
THe game starts for me from now...
Damn, what an entrance!
You that sure about your choice already?
...and Meyyappan has arrived.
:laugh:
Meyyappan
21-03-2011, 17:55
LOL cannot be status quo man we have to march on if i am wrong papa will prove me wrong before he is dead.
LOL cannot be status quo man we have to march on if i am wrong papa will prove me wrong before he is dead.
:erm: I hope so. It'll be a bit late to prove you wrong after he's dead...
Meyyappan
21-03-2011, 17:58
Yep so you wanna join me in getting the 2nd vote and heat things up unless you are from mafia?
Come on guys pep it up,so many of you are online and none are commenting,go for it,this has potential to be really fun.
Yep so you wanna join me in getting the 2nd vote and heat things up unless you are from mafia?
Problem is that Papa has said the same thing in every wars. I remember clearly that he was the first to get lynched in the first wars & it cost us a valuable town member & we went on to get raped. I'm not sure I'm willing to lynch again on such a vague, repeated statement. You do though... eager to see someone die? :hmm:
Meyyappan does seem to be trying to provoke a rally, which has backfired so many times in the past, mostly due to me and Dale admittedly. :lol:
Meyyappan, is the only thing you are going on Papa being a member, the fact that he said he was mafia? History shows that that is how he starts every game. He ever got killed for it in the very first game.
Can't really blame you for not knowing. But you do seem in a bit in a rush.
Can I remind the mafia that they should not be private messaging each other during the day session. Mafia conversations should only happen during the night session. Cheers guys :)
Meyyappan
21-03-2011, 18:11
All right that makes things interesting
Bammers05
21-03-2011, 18:14
You are reading too much into that Bammers old pal.
Not really. You indicated that there was something more than probability making you suspect Chelsea11 and I simply asked you what it was.
Right, so who hasn't posted yet? Contestants are:
Bammers
Hunter
Dale
Papa
Fick
Appswah
Ali
Dundon's
Joel
Billy Minof
Chelsea11
Amateur
Meyyappan
TheBishop
Smudger2008
Phatmann
Football777
Laughin' Man
Here's the post count so far:
smudger2008 32
Hunter 29
Papa 24
Amateur 16
chelsea11 15
Bammers05 12
Pain 11
fick 11
Ali_BWFC 9
Dale C. 7
Football777 6
Billy Minof 3
Meyyappan 3
Dundon's 3
Phatmann 2
TheBishop 2
Appswah 0
Laughin Man 0
So Meyyappan, Dundon's, Phatmann, Bish and, especially, Appswah and Laughin Man could do with a few more posts.
As for what Meyyappan's apparent 'bloodthirstiness', I don't think we should read too much into that - looks to me simply like first MW-naivety.
Here's the post count so far...
Did this tactic work in any previous war?
Bammers05
21-03-2011, 18:22
Did this tactic work in any previous war?
No. But it's worth keeping an eye out on the number of posts, because the mafia have, in previous wars, killed the ones who haven't posted much on Day 1, during Night 1, thereby giving us no leads. However, if we encourage everyone to post as much as possible, the mafia can't just pick off the quiet ones.
Can I remind the mafia that they should not be private messaging each during the day session. Mafia conversations should only happen during the night session. Cheers guys :)
Is this an implication that the Mafia have been PM'ing one another during the day?
If so, I say they should be suspended from killing one of us on Night 1. Or the Mafia family involved as there may very well be 2 Mafia families.
You know it makes sense Smink. ;)
PS: Bammers, how do you check the post counts of everyone in the thread? I hope you didn't count them manually. :lol:
Dundon's
21-03-2011, 18:40
Well, i could not go through the whole thread with the probability issues and all but i see that papa stated that he is a member of the mafia,no reason to say this if he was a townie,for it would just create disturbances for the town as the mafia already know who they are at night but was he fooling around then?Well seeing the amount of posts by him on this thread i dont think so....
Feel free to comment on the above analysis and expand it...
Vote PAPA
THe game starts for me from now...
Response*
We try to give him thanks and praise
Meyyappan
21-03-2011, 18:40
No. But it's worth keeping an eye out on the number of posts, because the mafia have, in previous wars, killed the ones who haven't posted much on Day 1, during Night 1, thereby giving us no leads. However, if we encourage everyone to post as much as possible, the mafia can't just pick off the quiet ones.
Or this time they might pick out the ones that lead us on the wrong track
chelsea11
21-03-2011, 18:41
But why is it that Chelsea11 is one of my main suspects at this stage of the game? Because of his victim mode with his very first post, then quickly judging Papa for not saying the usual, then again saying that Papa is suspicious when Papa said the usual; I mean, if you are afraid of getting lynched early on, would you start by making wild accusations?
:laugh:
I never accused Papa, it was said jokingly. I think Papa can back me up on that. The previous Wars he has stated it as his very first post so I thought I'd remind him ;) You're reading way too much into that my man.
I got killed off the last two times because I didn't comment much, and I've been told by more than one person to post more to rectify that which is exactly what I'm doing, albeit rather fruitless now as it turns out :rolleyes:
I can only see this going one of a very few ways,
1. I get lynched today - I'm out
2. I don't get lynched, the Mafia take me out - I'm out
3. I don't get lynched, the Mafia don't take me out, I get lynched the following day because the Mafia didn't kill me - I'm out
P.S. I think Meyyappan might be on to something there (That's a joke Amateur)
Bammers05
21-03-2011, 18:43
Is this an implication that the Mafia have been PM'ing one another during the day?
If so, I say they should be suspended from killing one of us on Night 1. Or the Mafia family involved as there may very well be 2 Mafia families.
You know it makes sense Smink. ;)
I agree. How dare the mafia try to break the rules! Everyone knows that real mafias would never even attempt such a thing.
PS: Bammers, how do you check the post counts of everyone in the thread? I hope you didn't count them manually. :lol:
A good magician never reveals his secrets ;)
I agree. How dare the mafia try to break the rules! Everyone knows that real mafias would never even attempt such a thing.
And you should know as an experienced Mafia man :hmm:
I love day one, so much confusion, so much use of the :hmm: smiley, so many debates over the fall of a coin. On that subject, how come no-one ever mentioned it landing on it's edge? It is statistically probable...
The only suspicion I have for anyone right now really is Papa.
The continuous use of the 'I am a member of the Mafia' post to open his games is too much of a mind fuck. Fool me once, shame on you, fool me twice, shame on me, fool me three times, shame on me, fool me four times, shame on us all. I mean, there's just no point in making the post. It was a silly thing to post first time round, let alone carry it on for the next 3 Wars. It serves no purpose but to potentially cause a headache.
A good magician never reveals his secrets ;)
Do you want to be banned? :lol:
Fool me once, shame on you, fool me twice, shame on me, fool me three times, shame on me, fool me four times, shame on us a
Can't wait to find out what happens if he fools you five times...
Is this an implication that the Mafia have been PM'ing one another during the day?
If so, I say they should be suspended from killing one of us on Night 1. Or the Mafia family involved as there may very well be 2 Mafia families.
You know it makes sense Smink. ;)
PS: Bammers, how do you check the post counts of everyone in the thread? I hope you didn't count them manually. :lol:
If it happens again I might veto their night kill but I doubt they'll do it again :) ... will you chaps!
Lovely ... I'll leave you all to your subtefuge and conspiracies now ... Oh and seeing as the activity has gone through the roof today the daytime session will end at 10pm as planned.
Billy Minof
21-03-2011, 19:28
Wow, alot to catch up on on day 1.
And so the accusations begin :laugh:, oh how I've missed this! The unity, the oneness, the feeling of being part of a community albeit one likely to stab you in the back at a moments notice!
And what a way for them to kick off, the town is split already, we need unity and to work together, the Cop needs to announce himself to the world and then the Doctor should protect him, we use the Cop then and he can name and shame the Mafia.
I'd just like to say I think it's important that we get everyone commenting as much as possible during Day 1. In past Mafia Wars, the mafia have killed those who haven't said anything, on Night 1, thereby giving us no leads for the next day. However if everyone talks a fair bit during the first day, they can't use that tactic.
I agree, and if someone hasnt posted then we should vote them off, the trick I used last game was to wait it out until the end, I kept an eye on the game but as long as my name never cropped up I didnt draw any attention to myself by posting and voting someone off that is contributing in either a positive or negative manner then he deserves to live another day. (unless of course we are sure he is Mafia).
Ha! didn't work for me in the first wars, got lynched first night despite being a frequent poster :no:
Thats the joys of it.
Yeah I guess the ones who are not participating are waiting for night time to arrive to talk amongst themselves.
I think Hunter is suspicious,, and so are those ones who are on here but not talking.
But I'm watching you as I don't like your tone.
I agree, anyone watching from the wings is more than likely mafia.
Hey guys, token first to be killed guy is here!
It seems to be the same old, same old, so far. Well bar Papa with his 'mind' games, stating he is mafia.
Very suspicious.
I see a few accusations being thrown Hunters way. Could the mafia be pushing for a first day lynching? http://highprofileaudio.com/smile7838.gif
Yes, we have to be careful of this and see who are the ones pointing the fingers.
http://dictionary.reference.com/browse/Asshole
Asshole,
a) a stupid, mean, or contemptible person.
b) a worthless and annoying person. (Also a term of address. Rude and derogatory.) : Somebody get this asshole outta here before I bust in his face!
c) the worst part of a place or thing.
Origin: 13501400; Middle English arshole
EDIT
Next time, use your fucking head before making false statements.
God you are stupid, beyond belief. You helped the mafia you fucking moron, you voted against two different townies in less than four days. Your actions didn't get anyone killed because the community reacted you fucking moron, otherwise, you would have been happy voting in favor of lynching townies.
You are a vampire, I don't know if townie or mafia, but you certainly are not worth my vote nor my time. Go fuck yourself.
Unity, we need it lads.
My guess is that we have two mafia families, each with three members, which leaves us with twelve townies; and, a wild card somewhere, maybe a treacherous townie or a serial killer, which would leave us with eleven townies.
What do you think?
That sounds logical. I expect at least one of a Cop and a Doctor as well, and quite likely both.
Do we know what we are dealing with yet?
The problem with the past few games was that no one had enough backbone. People would make a half hearted theories and strategies, but not follow through with it, probably due to being afraid of getting lynched.
The only way we're going to win this time around is if we call out people who we are suspicious of and really push it. Nothing less than 100% will work.
The problem in previous games was that the Cop wasnt used and those looking for answers had no means of getting them.
A coin has no memory. HHHHH is as likely as HTHTH, HHHTT or any other combination.
EDIT: I'll elaborate slightly as I imagine I'll get a response such as 'but it's a 50-50 chance so it will even out to equal heads and tails'. This belief is known as the Gambler's Fallacy.
Basically if you have to predict the result of a coin toss, it's a 50-50 or 1/2 chance to be heads. Therefore it follows that two heads in two tosses would be 1/4, 3 in 3 would be 1/8, 4 in 4 would be 1/16 and 5/5 would be 1/32.
However, this is only true if you are predicting before the first coin has been tossed. Once the first four coins have been tossed (and let's say they were all heads), the probability of the fifth coin also being a head would no longer be 1/32, but 1/2 again or 50-50.
So, applying this logic to the game, I can't remember what Chelsea11 was in the first round but let's say he was Town, and for argument's sake we'll say there was a 50-50 chance of being Town or Mafia (though with variables such as serial killers and so on, there obviously wasn't). Before the first Mafia Wars started there would have been a 1/16 chance of Chelsea11 being Town for all of the first four games. However, now that the first three are over, the probability that he is a townie is back to 50-50.
And that, children, concludes the lesson. Essays on my desk by 4 o'clock tomorrow.
:angry: You have me tossing a coin now.
I guess I'm not being lynched, which leaves it for the mafia to take me out in the night! :lol:
I guess it will be bitter sweet in the end.
I guess I'm not being lynched, which leaves it for the mafia to take me out in the night! :lol:
I guess it will be bitter sweet in the end.
I guess I'm not being lynched, which leaves it for the mafia to take me out in the night! :lol:
I guess it will be bitter sweet in the end.
Keep triple posting and you wont last long in this town. :laugh:
Right, so who hasn't posted yet? Contestants are:
Bammers
Hunter
Dale
Papa
Fick
Appswah
Ali
Dundon's
Joel
Billy Minof
Chelsea11
Amateur
Meyyappan
TheBishop
Smudger2008
Phatmann
Football777
Laughin' Man
Ok, as Papa asked, who hasnt posted yet, lets get the ball rolling and weed the Mafia out from day 1. This is risky but if someone hasnt contributed then they are not good for the town anyway and are holding us back, they wont add to our votes tally or find out who the mafia are so what good are they to us and if they are mafia then we will be closer to winning the game, people need to step up and use there rolls, if the cop is out there hollar at us and if we have a doctor in the house he can protect the Cop for the remainder of the game or until he dies.
If it happens again I might veto their night kill but I doubt they'll do it again :) ... will you chaps!
Lovely ... I'll leave you all to your subtefuge and conspiracies now ... Oh and seeing as the activity has gone through the roof today the daytime session will end at 10pm as planned.
Right! This means it was someone who was online during the period that Sminky noticed. We just need to see who was online during the time Sminky first mentioned this in the Mafia Wars thread. If they weren't posting in this MW thread I doubt Sminky would have even responded in this thread and told them off, as they may not have seen the warning. This could be quite a breakthrough, possibly the one we've been hoping for throughout the day.
So, lets sum this up:
1) The Mafia were PMing during the day (very recently presumably)
2) Sminky caught them PMing and posted the warning in this thread
3) We can assume the Mafia were viewing and even taking part in this thread, otherwise Sminky would have PMed them to warn them and not aired them out.
4) The members posting around the time Sminky first posted his warning are potentially Mafia.
Shit just got real.
Ali_BWFC
21-03-2011, 19:37
If we're going by post count we should also look at the previous games. For example, Papa is usually quite quiet in comparison to how he has started this game. Now, this could be down to his general posting habits, but maybe it's something to look in to? Not just with Papa... with everyone?
Hunter - that's some good thinking there... I like it. It makes me think..... in the first game, Joel opened a chatroom for the mafia because there were quite a few of us (5), but in the 3rd game (I can't vouch for the 2nd since I was townie that time), since it was just me and Papa, Sminky didn't think it would be worth it to open a chatroom. It leads me to think that there is more than one team, and they're fairly small in numbers. I'm thinking 2 teams of 3... or even 3 teams of 2...... but that might be pushing it.
chelsea11
21-03-2011, 19:50
Yeah that triple post (one of a few) was from the site acting up earlier. I really don't envy people coming on late and having to read through all that! :laugh:
As for the Mafia chatting thing, anyone care to figure out who was online/posting around that time period then? I would presume it would be someone who posted maybe the odd comment and then chatted with thier accomplice about the response they were getting?
If we're going by post count we should also look at the previous games. For example, Papa is usually quite quiet in comparison to how he has started this game. Now, this could be down to his general posting habits, but maybe it's something to look in to? Not just with Papa... with everyone?
Hunter - that's some good thinking there... I like it. It makes me think..... in the first game, Joel opened a chatroom for the mafia because there were quite a few of us (5), but in the 3rd game (I can't vouch for the third since I was townie that time), since it was just me and Papa, Sminky didn't think it would be worth it to open a chatroom. It leads me to think that there is more than one team, and they're fairly small in numbers. I'm thinking 2 teams of 3... or even 3 teams of 2...... but that might be pushing it.
Being a Mafia member in MWIII I can vouch that we also were directed to use a chatroom. However it wasn't until late in the day when we found out we could use a chatroom - which seems likely to be the case here. :lol: They'll probably have been directed to a chatroom now by Sminky so it's unlikely we'll catch them out now. I've been checking a few profiles but caught no one PMing.
I actually find Minof's previous post quite suspicious. Maybe he was waiting in the wings viewing the thread, before Smink aired the Mafia out initially at 17:11 and then secondly at 18:18. Minof's post was at 18:28, which seems like he may have just decided to post to 'contribute'. I may be completely wrong about the previous point so I'll admit that now, and it's not really worth hanging onto. However I think it's fair to throw out there that despite Minof's post being long, it's nothing but fluff. "We need to do this", "we need to do that", but the post had absolutely no substance. He was posting to get involved but without making any commitment whatsoever. It's a little suspicious in my view.
-
Sminky's first post of warning to the Mafia was at 17:11. I've decided to track back through posts either side of that time to try and gauge a small pattern throughout. I started at 15:30, or more specifically 15:35 since that's when the first post was made around that timeline, and continued all the way through to this very post. Here is the list of posters in order. This is just the list however, in order to really gauge everyone's posting, we'll have to go back through the thread to their very posts and see what was said in order to really try and develop patterns. Anyway:
Fick 15:35
Chelsea11 15:35
Chelsea11 15:38
Ali 15:38
Hunter 15:41
Papa 15:48
Smudger 15:57
Hunter 16:02
Papa 16:03
Pain 16:17
Amateur 16:20
Fick 16:24
Ali 16:25
Hunter 16:30
Ali 16:37
Pain 16:42
Meyyappan 16:42
Fick 16:51
Hunter 16:52
Meyyappan 16:55
Fick 16:56
Meyyappan 16:58
Fick 17:02
Hunter 17:07
Pain 17:08
Sminky 17:11
Meyyappan 17:11
Bammers 17:14
Fick 17:19
Bammers 17:22
Hunter 17:40
Dundons 17:40
Meyyappan 17:40
Chelsea11 17:41
Bammers 17:43
Fick 17:47
Hunter 17:51
Fick 18:00
Sminky 18:18
Minof 18:28
Hunter 18:30
Ali 18:37
Chelsea11 18:50
Hunter 18:54
So we have just over 3 hours left. I can't wait till the last hour. I think that is where we'll be able to see what peoples motives are.
Just to let you know from viewing the current game dynamic I'm changing the current voting system ...
I'm not going to explain why either (so don't bother asking!).
A lynching will now require a two thirds majority.
Feel free to complain ... I'm off to play Killzone3 :laugh:
I'll be honest, I can see Meyyappan being mafia. The warning about mafia PM'ing wouldn't have been directed at people who have played this before, you would think. But at the same time, I want him to stay in the game for my own amusement.
chelsea11
21-03-2011, 20:08
I actually find Minof's previous post quite suspicious. Maybe he was waiting in the wings viewing the thread, before Smink aired the Mafia out initially at 17:11 and then secondly at 18:18. Minof's post was at 18:28, which seems like he may have just decided to post to 'contribute'. I may be completely wrong about the previous point so I'll admit that now, and it's not really worth hanging onto. However I think it's fair to throw out there that despite Minof's post being long, it's nothing but fluff. "We need to do this", "we need to do that", but the post had absolutely no substance. He was posting to get involved but without making any commitment whatsoever. It's a little suspicious in my view.
Yeah, I noticed that too. And he also said,
And what a way for them to kick off
Might be reading into it a tad too much but that seems like a slip, saying 'them' as in Townies. :hmm:
:lmao:
Good spot, Chelsea11.
Billy, you need to explain why you used the term "them". It could be a harmless mistake, but after making all those quotes, it could also be a slip up from yourself.
Billy Minof
21-03-2011, 20:17
I actually find Minof's previous post quite suspicious. Maybe he was waiting in the wings viewing the thread, before Smink aired the Mafia out initially at 17:11 and then secondly at 18:18. Minof's post was at 18:28, which seems like he may have just decided to post to 'contribute'. I may be completely wrong about the previous point so I'll admit that now, and it's not really worth hanging onto. However I think it's fair to throw out there that despite Minof's post being long, it's nothing but fluff. "We need to do this", "we need to do that", but the post had absolutely no substance. He was posting to get involved but without making any commitment whatsoever. It's a little suspicious in my view.
Of course I was posting to contribute, is there any other point?
As for the time thing, I dont know what time I came online but as soon as I did I went into this thread, read through it and then replied, had my name been mentioned once, No, as I said my tactic last game was that of a mafia member, saying nought and waiting to see what developed, I am 100% not Mafia and am insulted by your insinuations, if we follow my plan and use the Cop then we will succeed, are you not for using the Cop to investigate? Suspicious you seem to me also if you are to read into every little detail.
@Chelsea, I was talking about the arguing and not the town when I said "Them". ;)
Anyway, onwards we go, who is still not contributing?
Of course I was posting to contribute, is there any other point?
As for the time thing, I dont know what time I came online but as soon as I did I went into this thread, read through it and then replied, had my name been mentioned once, No, as I said my tactic last game was that of a mafia member, saying nought and waiting to see what developed, I am 100% not Mafia and am insulted by your insinuations, if we follow my plan and use the Cop then we will succeed, are you not for using the Cop to investigate? Suspicious you seem to me also if you are to read into every little detail.
@Chelsea, I was talking about the arguing and not the town when I said "Them". ;)
Anyway, onwards we go, who is still not contributing?
"Insulted"? Pffff.
We post to contribute, but your post was lengthy with nothing but quotes and one liners of "yes, we need to do something". That's essentially all that was in that seemingly long post - which is suspicious to me.
It's easy enough to say, "the Cop should come forward", but it's never as easy as that. There's probably a Cop we can assume, but nothing's a given, and to presume there's a Doctor is also wrong. For example, what if someone said they were the Cop and another said they were the Doctor - yet they're both Mafia? Sure, we'd find out soon enough once the real Cop/Doctor step forward to confront them, but we'd still be in a mindfuck position of who is who, and who should we believe. It might lead to developments, but it's all risky - and that's providing there's even both a Cop and Doctor in play.
Billy Minof
21-03-2011, 20:40
"Insulted"? Pffff.
We post to contribute, but your post was lengthy with nothing but quotes and one liners of "yes, we need to do something". That's essentially all that was in that seemingly long post - which is suspicious to me.
It's easy enough to say, "the Cop should come forward", but it's never as easy as that. There's probably a Cop we can assume, but nothing's a given, and to presume there's a Doctor is also wrong. For example, what if someone said they were the Cop and another said they were the Doctor - yet they're both Mafia? Sure, we'd find out soon enough once the real Cop/Doctor step forward to confront them, but we'd still be in a mindfuck position of who is who, and who should we believe. It might lead to developments, but it's all risky - and that's providing there's even both a Cop and Doctor in play.
But why would you put a cop in play and not a doctor because then the cop becomes useless he reaches the end of the game, I know I am presuming there is a cop and doctor but with this many players there is bound to be more roles than just Townie and Mafia.....
As for my replies to the quotes, it took me long enough to read through the thread without having to write lenghty replies that were not needed, why? Because I dont suspect anyone yet.
If you have reason to vote for me then do it, id rather die contributing than live and not be involved. The more I post the more I draw attention on myself, when it turns out tonight, tomorrow or the next day that I am not Mafia you may become the next target. :cool:
If you have reason to vote for me then do it, id rather die contributing than live and not be involved. The more I post the more I draw attention on myself, when it turns out tonight, tomorrow or the next day that I am not Mafia you may become the next target. :cool:
But that's the thing, you're not contributing. So if you died, it'd be like lynching someone not involved. :lol:
Billy Minof
21-03-2011, 20:50
But that's the thing, you're not contributing. So if you died, it'd be like lynching someone not involved. :lol:
:realmad:
Im voting for you. :laugh:
Phatmann
21-03-2011, 21:24
Fucking hell, I think I just read through 8 pages worth of nonsense about coin-tossing, probability and some sort of weird theory from Hunter which will probably fall on its arse, although you have to applaud the effort put in. I have a feeling Meyyappan is either going to be impossible to read or he'll end up inadvertently posting a screenshot of Sminky's PM to him, showing his role. Hopefully there's not as much general bullshit being posted during the day tomorrow as it's a bastard to get through.
Fucking hell, I think I just read through 8 pages worth of nonsense about coin-tossing, probability and some sort of weird theory from Hunter which will probably fall on its arse, although you have to applaud the effort put in. I have a feeling Meyyappan is either going to be impossible to read or he'll end up inadvertently posting a screenshot of Sminky's PM to him, showing his role. Hopefully there's not as much general bullshit being posted during the day tomorrow as it's a bastard to get through.
To be fair, I think my theory is quite good and logical, but it's just difficult to actually put into practice really as it involves guesswork also.
Phatmann
21-03-2011, 21:39
Hunter, I'm sceptical of any theory you create and I think you know why. :cringe: Maybe it's worth lynching Football777 since he's banned and will no doubt mess up again as soon as he returns from his ban since he never learns.
Bammers05
21-03-2011, 21:40
Purely out of curiosity, what's he been banned for?
It's easy enough to say, "the Cop should come forward", but it's never as easy as that. There's probably a Cop we can assume, but nothing's a given, and to presume there's a Doctor is also wrong. For example, what if someone said they were the Cop and another said they were the Doctor - yet they're both Mafia? Sure, we'd find out soon enough once the real Cop/Doctor step forward to confront them, but we'd still be in a mindfuck position of who is who, and who should we believe. It might lead to developments, but it's all risky - and that's providing there's even both a Cop and Doctor in play.
That's a good point, the only thing I can add to the argument regarding the cop + doctor tactic is more or less the same thing you have explained, at this stage of the game anyone can say that he is the cop or the doctor: why should we believe anyone?
There's just no reason to believe anyone at this stage, and pretending that such a tactic would work, is just, if not suspicious, then at least naive; at the end of the day, it's just words that we cannot possibly link to a night event, and we still have almost no clue of the format of this game.
I mean, for all I know, we could have a cop, a serial killer, a treacherous townie, plus two mafia gangs of three. We simply have no idea, and I have no reason to believe the first person that says "I'm the cop", so I'm sticking with my initial stance: actions speak louder than words.
Billy Minof
21-03-2011, 21:43
Fucking hell, I think I just read through 8 pages worth of nonsense about coin-tossing, probability and some sort of weird theory from Hunter which will probably fall on its arse, although you have to applaud the effort put in. I have a feeling Meyyappan is either going to be impossible to read or he'll end up inadvertently posting a screenshot of Sminky's PM to him, showing his role. Hopefully there's not as much general bullshit being posted during the day tomorrow as it's a bastard to get through.
Ahhhhhhhhhh, we have you, your mafia, you just posted.
*sarcasm* it was what happened to me. :no:
Anyway, back on planet earth.
What is the low down? Do we have a plan or are we just going to throw out random names until we are all dead. It hasnt worked yet.
Here are my ideas to improve our investigations:
2 things need to be decided between the town, firstly, is there a Cop in play and if so do we plan to use him? If we do then what way do we use him, do we ask him to come public and we give him names to investigate and hope that there is a Doctor who will protect the Cop or do we leave him do his work behind closed doors hoping he isnt taken out before he can reveal his findings?
And what if there is no Cop, what other ways have we got to determine who is Mafia and who is town apart from guessing and heresay.
EDIT: a few new posts up since.
Well if someone says he is the cop and he investigates someone and then we vote for them and they are not Mafia then we will know that the cop is a liar and a mafia member.
Purely out of curiosity, what's he been banned for?
Partly for being himself, but mainly for creating a thread that was basically a direct tirade towards another member of the site.
Phatmann
21-03-2011, 21:48
Just to let you know from viewing the current game dynamic I'm changing the current voting system ...
I'm not going to explain why either (so don't bother asking!).
A lynching will now require a two thirds majority.
Feel free to complain ... I'm off to play Killzone3 :laugh:
Does anyone have any theories as to why Sminky may have changed the voting system? He has said that it is because of the "current game dynamic" but what could that mean? more individuals? fewer townies? fewer mafia? any ideas?
Does anyone have any theories as to why Sminky may have changed the voting system? He has said that it is because of the "current game dynamic" but what could that mean? more individuals? fewer townies? fewer mafia? any ideas?
Not a clue. He'd PM'd me about the 777 situation, but then went offline before I could ask...
Billy Minof
21-03-2011, 21:52
Does anyone have any theories as to why Sminky may have changed the voting system? He has said that it is because of the "current game dynamic" but what could that mean? more individuals? fewer townies? fewer mafia? any ideas?
It must be fewer Mafia if he said that it needed 75% of the votes or maybe its more individual roles, fcuk him and his killzone. Tell us damn it. :folarm:
Well if someone says he is the cop and he investigates someone and then we vote for them and they are not Mafia then we will know that the cop is a liar and a mafia member.
But the Cop could actually be the Cop, and was just unfortunate enough to investigate the/a Mafia Godfather. So if we then go to lynch the Cop and it turns out he's actually the Cop then that falls flat too. As I say, we'd find out soon enough, but definitely not instantly.
An hour remains in the Daytime session ...
I'm just curious, against who was the 777 tirade?
chelsea11
21-03-2011, 22:03
It was against Dale. It was ridiculously long as well, only glanced at it myself.
smudger2008
21-03-2011, 22:05
how long does the ban last? if its going to be long it may be worth lynching him as he won't have any input anyway?
I'm just curious, against who was the 777 tirade?
Remarkably, it wasn't you :tongue:
As I missed the last two games, can anyone tell me if the cop role was ever used successfully? If it was then perhaps it is a good option, with the hope there is a role to protect them of course... otherwise it's effectively a death sentence... :erm:
chelsea11
21-03-2011, 22:14
There has never been a cop that has come out and said they were the cop, so no.
If there is no doctor then the cop role is only useful for one day pretty much, until the mafia kill him off.
Billy Minof
21-03-2011, 22:15
I read it, replied also only for the thread to be closed in the meantime, wasnt worth it by a long shot.
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